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The day is here, the line is set, now it’s time to make some money.
The “final” (unless some whale comes in and changes it) line for the Buccaneers Jets is Buccaneers by 3.5. Over/under is set at 40.
For those of you new to football spreads, the home team usually garners a three-point advantage based solely on location. That means the odds makers in Vegas have the Buccaneers at just short of a touchdown better than the Jets.
So let’s think about how we want to bet this game. Let’s start with the over/under. The Buccaneers have beefed up their defense, and the Jets offense is borderline brutal. That’s why the number sits so low. But I advise you to go with the over here. 21-20 is enough to cover. That would mean if the game is 10-7 at half, you are still in pretty good shape.
I know the Jets defense is pretty good, and the Buccaneers are much improved, but these two teams have been planning for each other for months. I expect both to have a few tricks up their sleeves that lead to TD’s or even just FG’s. I see the Buccaneers getting out ahead in this game which will make the Jets have to pass to get back in. That will lead to Jets touchdowns, possibly, but maybe as likely, turnovers that lead to even more Tampa points.
I see the Buccaneers in the high low 30′s. That means the Jets only need 10 to hit the over.
Now on to the game. I like playing the Bucs to cover the three and a half. As I mentioned earlier, I see the Bucs in the 30′s, and even if you polled the Jets players, I don’t think they are expecting 27 or more points.
The Buccaneers are the more talented team, the weather is nice, and Schiano has done well when his team has had extra time to prepare (3-0 last season). The Jets are in turmoil, the Bucs are about to send them into the downward spiral that is the 2013 season. Take advantage of it, and make some cash.
(I only live in Vegas, I don’t gamble professionally. These are simply opinions, and how I’m going to play the lines today.)