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So we didn’t do so well gambling on the game last week, it’s okay gamblers, there’s always next week. And lucky for us, next week is almost here, and we’re going to get all those losses back when the Buccaneers play the Saints.
The Buccaneers enter Week 2 as three-point underdogs in a game where the total sits at 48.
This week we’re going in big on the over. Yeah, yeah. I know. Both teams were way under last week, but the Saints tend to light up the Bucs almost every time the two teams get together. That doesn’t mean the Buccaneers aren’t going to be able to score though. The Falcons were without one of their two star receivers (Roddy White was playing with one leg) and have a make-shift offensive line, and they still got 17 against the Saints… on the road.
The Bucs have a home game, with a close to healthy roster (sans Carl Nicks) and have a bunch of film on the new 3-4 Rob Ryan defense. An over/under at 48 means we would need the Buccaneers to get to 24 points. Seems relatively likely to me. Last year the Saints put up 41 and 35 on the Buccaneer defense. Now of course Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson will make an impact, but a double-digit point impact, I don’t think so. I see it in the 50′s before the last game deciding drive.
So that brings us to Buccaneers +3 and a moneyline of +140. Can’t say I’m enamored with the spread. I would have been much more inclined to say the Bucs could cover if the number was 4.5 or 5. I’m going to make two recommendations. The first is simply to lay the points and take the Saints, that’s what I’m going to do. The other would be to take the risk and go for the moneyline. Nearly pay and a half for a home team isn’t too bad. After all, it did happen for the Jets last week. But for the sake of my record on this site, I’ll stick with the Saints to cover.
Last week I was 0-2. This week I think we’ll for sure get one, and more than likely both.