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So far in this series, I’ve gone 0-5. Somehow last week even though I only pick against the spread and the over under, I managed to give you three wrong bets. What does this mean? Well, you can look at it one of two ways. First, I have to be due to give you a winner this week. Or, the one you probably should abide by, this guy stinks, I’ll just bet the opposite. But no matter which you choose, this series of articles should start making you money.
The Buccaneers come into the game against the Patriots as seven point underdogs. The total is set at 44.
I see this game as a close low scoring game in which the final couple of possessions will decide a winner. That means we should go with Buccaneers getting the points and the under.
Let’s start with the game itself. The Bucs have played two games in which they’ve had the lead in the last :15 seconds of the game. So for them to be seven point dogs appears to be a bit steep. I understand the reasoning behind it, that being the Bucs are on the road and the Patriots have been awesome for almost a decade. However, the Patriots don’t seem to be all their cracked up to be this season. They’ve won each of their first two games, but both were wins they eeked out against the Jets and Bills.
The Bucs could easily be 2-0. The Patriots could easily be 1-1 or even 0-2. If these were the records, the spread would be closer to two or three. Use the fact that the Bucs have under performed to your advantage. Even if it’s deja vu times three, we’ll still cover the spread.
Now on to the total. The Buccaneers offense has struggled in each of their first two games. And the defense has kept them in it both times. The Patriots offense doesn’t look nearly as they in the recent past. I see much of the same in this game. The Buccaneers will have a tough time scoring against the improved New England defense, and the Tampa defense should be able to stymie the Brady and his stable of bad receivers. 44 is an awfully high number for two teams who haven’t exactly been lighting it up.
So there you have it. Under and Buccaneers with the spread. Will I go 0-7? I sure hope not.