Which First-Round QB Pattern Will Jameis Winston Follow?

With Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston entering his second year, how will his numbers stack up against the sophomore seasons of first-round picks from the past? Here, we look at what to expect from no. 3 as compared to every quarterback taken in the first round since 2012.

2015 no. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston had a rookie season for the record books a year ago while leading the Buccaneers to a four-win improvement from their 2014 total. What can he do in year two?

Looking at quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2012, it’s a mixed bag. Some put up better numbers in their rookie seasons than they did in year two, others made progress in their second season and some stayed consistent. Here, we break down those numbers to project what can be expected of the Bucs’ young quarterback in 2016.

Quarterbacks that progressed from year one to year two: Ryan Tannehill (2012, 8th overall); Blake Bortles (2014, 3rd overall); Johnny Manziel (2014, 22nd overall); Teddy Bridgewater (2014, 32nd overall)

With Manziel, it would’ve been hard to have worse numbers in year two, as he was limited to five games as a rookie. But, the players below all had significant playing time in their rookie years:

Tannehill- 3,505 total yards, 14 touchdowns (12 passing), 13 INT in 16 games

Bortles- 3,327 total yards, 11 touchdowns (all passing), 17 INT in 14 games

Bridgewater- 3,128 total yards, 15 touchdowns (14 passing), 12 INT in 13 games

The numbers here are pretty solid, especially considering where each player’s respective teams were in the standings prior to their arrival. But, they put up bigger numbers in year two:

Tannehill- 4,151 total yards, 25 touchdowns (24 passing), 17 INT in 16 games

Bortles- 4,738 total yards, 37 touchdowns (35 passing), 18 INT in 16 games

Bridgewater- 3,423 total yards, 17 touchdowns (14 passing), 9 INT in 16 games

All three saw jumps in total yards and touchdowns, but only Bridgewater cut down on interceptions. Still, the three of them were significantly better in their second seasons as far as stats go while also leading their teams to improved win totals. Bridgewater was the only one of the three to lead his team to the postseason, as the Vikings won the NFC North with an 11-5 record.

Quarterbacks that regressed from year one to year two: Robert Griffin III (2012, 2nd overall); Brandon Weeden (2012, 22nd overall); EJ Manuel (2013, 16th overall)

Only a few years removed from being drafted, the names in this category are examples of first-round picks gone wrong. However, rookie numbers for each of these quarterbacks were solid:

Griffin- 4,015 total yards, 27 touchdowns (20 passing), 5 INT in 15 games

Weeden- 3,496 total yards, 14 touchdowns (all passing), 17 INT in 15 games

Manuel- 2,158 total yards, 13 touchdowns (11 passing), 9 INT in 10 games

Griffin’s numbers were the best of the three by far, but each of these quarterbacks had their best years as rookies. As a result, Griffin, who signed with the Browns this offseason, looks to be the only one with a real chance to start this year. Their second-year stats didn’t match up with what they put up as newcomers to the league:

Griffin- 3,692 total yards, 16 touchdowns (all passing), 12 INT in 13 games

Weeden- 1,775 total yards, 9 touchdowns (all passing), 9 INT in 8 games

Manuel- 890 total yards, 6 touchdowns (5 passing), 3 INT in 5 games

Griffin’s stats only dipped a bit, but the other two were much worse and their playing time declined as a result. The biggest issue for RGIII (the only one with significant playing time in his second year) was an increase in interceptions, as he threw seven more in two fewer games.

With all of that said, there is only one first-round quarterback since 2012 that put up impressive numbers in years one and two. That one was Colts signal-caller Andrew Luck:

Rookie year- 4,629 total yards, 28 touchdowns (23 passing), 18 INT in 16 games

Second year- 4,199 total yards, 27 touchdowns (23 passing), 9 INT in 16 games

The comparison has been made before, so it’s not exactly a bold one, but Winston looks to be the best quarterback prospect since Luck. With that in mind, it’s fair to expect a similar progression for the Bucs’ gunslinger in 2016. While Luck saw a small dip in yardage and touchdowns, he cut his interception total in half. If Winston can do the same, Tampa Bay will surely be happy.

Obviously, there’s no telling which pattern “Famous Jameis”  will follow. But, it’s reasonable to expect him to put up similar numbers to the ones he did in 2015. He threw for over 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns last year with a receiving corps that was frequently hit with injuries. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Louis Murphy and Vincent Jackson all missed significant time, with Jackson being the most notable of the three. As Alan Schechter outlined here, Jackson is a very important part of the Tampa Bay offense. While Winston improved the Buccaneer offense greatly last year, there were still some struggles in the red zone. Adding a healthy V-Jax is a huge plus in the red zone (and at 6’5″, he’s literally a big plus).

Aside from a healthier receiving corps, Winston is bound to have a better relationship with his receivers in year two. That starts with Mike Evans, who Winston recently said he has been working with throughout the offseason. Another year of consistent production from Doug Martin should be on tap as well, which will help the production of the passing game.

Winston should also benefit from playing all 16 games a year ago, as that experience will aid him in pushing through the grueling schedule that NFL quarterbacks face. And, of course, the retention and promotion of Dirk Koetter to head coach allows Winston to continue with the same playbook and same coach he worked with as a rookie. Koetter recently expressed the trust he has in his quarterback, talking about how much he can handle this year as far as responsibilities are concerned.

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With all things considered, it’s not a stretch to expect Jameis Winston to produce similar numbers to those he put up a year ago, similar to how Andrew Luck performed in his second year.

What say you, Bucs fans? Will Winston progress, regress or stay consistent this year? Let us know what you think.