Jan. 1, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars safety Dawan Landry (26) tackles Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark (44) during the second half at EverBank Field. Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Last season, the Buccaneers passing game was dreadful due to subpar pass protection and a huge down year from Josh Freeman. The receivers weren’t any better either, as Winslow digressed from a huge 2010 season and Mike Williams’s regression was even more steep and impactful than Winslow’s. Preston Parker was the only receiver who took a step forward last season, as the expected breakout year from Arrelious Benn did not materialize in year two.

The Buccaneers attempted 588 passes between Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson last year, and LeGarrette Blount and Co. combined for a total of 346 rushes. That leads to a 63%-37% ratio of passing plays to rushing plays.

Under Schiano, expect that number to change in favor of rushing plays to something between 55% and 60% of passing plays. I want to bring up an interesting fact from last season, and that is that Buccaneers opponents ran the ball more (498 times) than they passed it (481 times). The pass-run splits are due to play-calling and the team being down more and having to pass more, but one should still expect a 60-40 pass-to-run ratio at the very least with Doug Martin in the fold.

Below is how the targets were spread among each player (4 WR, 2 TE).

Mike Williams: 124, 21.4%

Kellen Winslow Jr.: 121, 20.9%

Preston Parker: 64, 11%

Dezmon Briscoe: 51, 8.8%

Arrelious Benn: 51, 8.8%

Luke Stocker: 17, 2.9%

Notice how the Buccaneers utilized Briscoe and Benn equally, but it seems like they have confidence in Benn in the always-crucial third year. Parker was the No. 2 receiver by virtue of targets, but Freeman was clearly targeting Winslow and Williams the most. Targeting Williams in his down year that heavily did not help. He averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt in an awful year after a terrific rookie campaign, but he will bounce back in year three.

The reason being is that Williams might be too inconsistent to be a No. 1 wideout at this point, but the Buccaneers made the right move and didn’t waste time trying to find a solid No. 2 or 3 wideout. Instead, they went right after a big fish and inked Vincent Jackson to a huge deal.

V-Jax gives Freeman his first legitimate No. 1 receiver, as Jackson was one of the best WRs in the league a few years ago. He will likely receive 130 targets. Williams will get around 90, while Parker will be set to get 50 and Benn 50 (depending on how they feel about him. The other receivers will likely get 50 “vulture” targets.

If the Bucs target their WRs/TEs 450 times next season, that leaves 80 targets for the tight ends. Thus, the tight end will be limited by 58 targets. In those 80 targets, 20 will likely go to Luke Stocker, who will primarily be used as a blocker in this platoon. Meanwhile, Dallas Clark will probably get 60 targets, which would have placed him 26th among tight ends last season.

That could change if Clark takes targets from Jackson or the vulture targets, but I doubt he receives 80 targets and will probably get 60-75 targets  this season. Thus, the Buccaneers are limiting the tight end’s role in the passing game, and they seem content with doing that. It seems like a better policy with a revamped receiving corps due to the addition of a bona fide threat in Jackson.

Even so, the Bucs could give Clark more targets if he is impressive enough, as I doubt they wouldn’t give him more opportunities if he plays well enough. That may not happen with his age and injury history, and there are question marks surrounding him. If he gets 65 targets and catches 65% of them, then he finishes the year with 42 receptions and the Bucs will be content with that production.

Remember, these are only estimates of what will happen based on data from last season, but there is a new coaching staff, new players, and a new method. I tried to take that into account with the above projections, but they are rough. Even so, they give a good estimation of the break down of targets for the wideouts and tight ends involved in the Buccaneers passing game.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Like us on Facebook here and follow us on Twitter @ThePewterPlank.

Dec, 24, 2011; Charlotte, NC, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow (82) runs as Carolina Panthers free safety Sherrod Martin (23) defends in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Winslow was targeted an astounding 121 times for a completion percentage of 62 (or 64, depending on if you use ESPN or Advanced NFL Stats) and an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. The completion percentage was down from his sky-high total of 78% the previous year, but it was still average, and Freeman was just as accurate throwing it to him as he was to anyone else. The QB averaged 6.5 yards per attempt as well, which is as many yards per attempt as he averaged while passing it to Winslow.

The rise of the interceptions were meteoric, as Freeman was only picked off once the year before whilst throwing it in the TE’s direction.

The problem with looking at interceptions and saying that it is Winslow’s fault is misleading, since it is rarely the receiver’s fault that a pass was picked off. This is especially true when the rate statistics (Y/A and Cmp%) match up and the INT ratios are way off.

Sample size is a major issue, because 120 or so targets does little to show how the player affects a quarterback’s interception rate directly. However, there are indirect effects that are worth mentioning and can explain this.

First off, Freeman was poor last season and threw 22 interceptions. He threw about 40% of his picks to Winslow, but struggling young quarterbacks often times throw to their tight end. Freeman’s protection from the line was subpar last season, so he was often rushed into decisions and had to throw an inaccurate pass to Winslow, which led to rash decisions and interceptions thrown to the tight end.

It is extremely unlikely for a player to have an incredible season one year and then fall flat the next year, but that is exactly what happened to both Freeman and Winslow. However, most of it falls on Freeman, because it starts from the quarterback. While Winslow was visibly worse last season, so was Freeman and a receiver cannot dictate what type of pass he gets from the QB. Winslow should have done a better job and had a poor year, but he wasn’t that bad and certainly didn’t hurt the team as a pass-catcher, contrary to popular belief.

Some people are going as far as saying that the Bucs would have been better getting rid of Winslow, which is true in that he is a poor blocker and is getting old, but they are also saying that he is a poor pass catcher due to these numbers. That simply isn’t true, because they are twisting the stats.

Numbers can only tell you what you want them to tell you, because, without doing due diligence, you can come up to vastly wrong conclusions. The Bucs are better off without Kellen Winslow Jr. due to factors such as poor blocking and decreasing morale, but those who are criticizing him due to these stats are basically saying that they would rather have a replacement-level TE (like Jeff King) than Winslow. That’s crazy talk, because Winslow is still one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. The Bucs are better off platooning Luke Stocker and Dallas Clark, but it isn’t like Winslow is to blame for Freeman’s struggles. After all, Freeman was just as innaccurate an inefficient while throwing to Winslow as he was while throwing it to everyone else.

Again, young QBs love throwing it to tight ends, especially when they are in doubt. He was facing double teams as a result, because teams knew that Freeman would target him. The quarterback was under stress in the pocket and had to make a quick decision to the TE on a medium or short route, but it wasn’t always the right one.

Even so, it must be said that Kellen Winslow had a poor year and needed to go; it’s just that his fortunes went as Freeman’s did which is south. The stats do show that Winslow was bad, but he wasn’t the main reason for Freeman’s struggles and he is much better than a replacement level TE. I would rather have him than Clark or Stocker alone, but I would rather have both Clark and Stocker sharing snaps and platooning to take advantage of Clark’s pass-catching and Stocker’s run blocking (Clark can’t block and Stocker can’t catch well). There is also the matter of him falling out of favor with the fans and new regime, and that is warranted. However, Winslow is still one of the better pass-catching TEs in the league.

He honestly did a decent job as a pass catcher, but Nathan Jahnke of PFF noted that he was much worse at breaking tackles. Winslow was poor overall despite above-average pass-catching, because he was a poor blocker and didn’t do the “little things”. He had a down year as a pass-catcher especially when comparing it to his amazing 2010 season, but he was undoubtedly more decent than poor.

So yes, Winslow is partially to blame for last season’s poor performance and Freeman’s negative statistics, but most of it falls on Freeman’s struggles and Winslow being the not-so-safe safety net. It isn’t completely Freeman’s fault either, and the statistics show that (the ones that aren’t privy to SSS like Y/A) it didn’t matter who Freeman was throwing to; he still had a below-average year.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Like us on Facebook here and follow us on Twitter @ThePewterPlank.

May 15, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Preston Parker (87) works out during organized team activities at One Buc. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Preston Parker was given a one-year extension worth $1 million, with $50,000 of that coming in guaranteed money. He signed a one-year deal worth $540,000 in April, and the Bucs were able to buy out Parker’s RFA year in 2013 with this extension. $1 million is cheaper than what the Bucs would have paid him if he became a restricted free agent, so this make sense for the Bucs.

Parker had a breakout year for the team with 40 catches for 554 yards and three touchdowns last year. He was the most consistent receiver on the team, in a season that saw too much inconsistency from the position. While he wasn’t great, Parker didn’t make mistakes and was a solid WR for the team.

He hauled in 62.5% of the passes thrown at him for a total of 8.7 yards per target while operating on short and medium passing routes. It was a quality year for him, and he will slot in comfortably into a reduced role as the team’s No. 4 receiver. In fact, he is one of the better No. 4 wideouts in the league.

Wide receiver Dezmon Briscoe reported for the second week of OTAs after missing the first week, and he will need to be at his best in order to receive a roster spot. Briscoe is the team’s No. 5 WR, but he enjoyed a decent 2011 campaign. He caught six touchdown passes and hauled in 68.6% of the passes thrown at him for an average of 7.6 yards per target. Briscoe should be able to at least get a roster spot, but he is fighting for targets at this point.

Undrafted FIU receiver Greg Ellingson played for the Jacksonville Jaguars as a rookie in 2011, and he was recently waived by the Jags before recently signing with the Bucs. He is a practice squad guy and could be cut after training camp. Ellingson was added after former Boise State star and current undrafted rookie Tyler Shoemaker was “waived/left squad”.

In tight end news, Luke Stocker was unsurprisingly named the starting and “every-down” tight end by Mark Dominik. The Buccaneers traded Kellen Winslow Jr. and then promptly picked up former Indianapolis Colts star tight end Dallas Clark. He is injury-prone and getting up there in age, but Clark is still a great pass-catcher and a difference-maker in that regard, despite being a poor blocker. Stocker, on the other hand, is a quality blocker and deserved to be the every-down guy, with Clark getting the targets as the No. 2 TE.

Expect Clark to get more targets than the Bucs, as the team will likely utilize his talents as the primary pass-catcher. Last season, Stocker was targeted just 17 times and finished with 12 catches for 92 yards.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

Like us on Facebook here and follow us on Twitter @ThePewterPlank.