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	<title>The Pewter Plank &#187; Kellen Winslow Jr.</title>
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		<title>Projecting Tampa Bay Buccaneers Target Distributions</title>
		<link>http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/26/projecting-tampa-bay-buccaneers-target-distributions/</link>
		<comments>http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/26/projecting-tampa-bay-buccaneers-target-distributions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 May 2012 12:26:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joe Soriano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[preston parker]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Vincent Jackson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thepewterplank.com/?p=8042</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A way of looking at how many times different players will be targeted in an offense is called target distribution (yes, I made that up), and it&#8217;s time to take a look at how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will spread out the football in the passing game. The Bucs are going to de-emphasize the tight [...]</p><p><a href="http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/26/projecting-tampa-bay-buccaneers-target-distributions/">Projecting Tampa Bay Buccaneers Target Distributions</a> - <a href="http://thepewterplank.com">The Pewter Plank</a> - <a href="http://thepewterplank.com">The Pewter Plank - A Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A way of looking at how many times different players will be targeted in an offense is called target distribution (yes, I made that up), and it&#8217;s time to take a look at how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will spread out the football in the passing game. The Bucs are going to de-emphasize the tight end in their passing attack, and that shouldn&#8217;t come as a surprise to anyone. With a revamped line, a top-flight receiver in Vincent Jackson, the addition of running back Doug Martin, and the departure of one of the highest-targeted TEs in the NFL in Kellen Winslow Jr., the Buccaneers offense is being shaken up under Greg Schiano and Mike Sullivan.</p>
<div id="attachment_8043" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/50/files/2012/05/5852310.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8043" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/50/files/2012/05/5852310-300x204.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="204" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Jan. 1, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars safety Dawan Landry (26) tackles Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark (44) during the second half at EverBank Field. Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE</p></div>
<p>Last season, the Buccaneers passing game was dreadful due to subpar pass protection and a huge down year from Josh Freeman. The receivers weren&#8217;t any better either, as Winslow digressed from a huge 2010 season and Mike Williams&#8217;s regression was even more steep and impactful than Winslow&#8217;s. Preston Parker was the only receiver who took a step forward last season, as the expected breakout year from Arrelious Benn did not materialize in year two.</p>
<p>The Buccaneers attempted 588 passes between Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson last year, and LeGarrette Blount and Co. combined for a total of 346 rushes. That leads to a 63%-37% ratio of passing plays to rushing plays.</p>
<p>Under Schiano, expect that number to change in favor of rushing plays to something between 55% and 60% of passing plays. I want to bring up an interesting fact from last season, and that is that Buccaneers opponents ran the ball more (498 times) than they passed it (481 times). The pass-run splits are due to play-calling and the team being down more and having to pass more, but one should still expect a 60-40 pass-to-run ratio at the very least with Doug Martin in the fold.</p>
<p>Below is how the targets were spread among each player (4 WR, 2 TE).</p>
<p>Mike Williams: 124, 21.4%</p>
<p>Kellen Winslow Jr.: 121, 20.9%</p>
<p>Preston Parker: 64, 11%</p>
<p>Dezmon Briscoe: 51, 8.8%</p>
<p>Arrelious Benn: 51, 8.8%</p>
<p>Luke Stocker: 17, 2.9%</p>
<p>Notice how the Buccaneers utilized Briscoe and Benn equally, but it seems like they have confidence in Benn in the always-crucial third year. Parker was the No. 2 receiver by virtue of targets, but Freeman was clearly targeting Winslow and Williams the most. Targeting Williams in his down year that heavily did not help. He averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt in an awful year after a terrific rookie campaign, but he will bounce back in year three.</p>
<p>The reason being is that Williams might be too inconsistent to be a No. 1 wideout at this point, but the Buccaneers made the right move and didn&#8217;t waste time trying to find a solid No. 2 or 3 wideout. Instead, they went right after a big fish and inked Vincent Jackson to a huge deal.</p>
<p>V-Jax gives Freeman his first legitimate No. 1 receiver, as Jackson was one of the best WRs in the league a few years ago. He will likely receive 130 targets. Williams will get around 90, while Parker will be set to get 50 and Benn 50 (depending on how they feel about him. The other receivers will likely get 50 &#8220;vulture&#8221; targets.</p>
<p>If the Bucs target their WRs/TEs 450 times next season, that leaves 80 targets for the tight ends. Thus, the tight end will be limited by 58 targets. In those 80 targets, 20 will likely go to Luke Stocker, who will primarily be used as a blocker in this platoon. Meanwhile, Dallas Clark will probably get 60 targets, which would have placed him 26th among tight ends last season.</p>
<p>That could change if Clark takes targets from Jackson or the vulture targets, but I doubt he receives 80 targets and will probably get 60-75 targets  this season. Thus, the Buccaneers are limiting the tight end&#8217;s role in the passing game, and they seem content with doing that. It seems like a better policy with a revamped receiving corps due to the addition of a bona fide threat in Jackson.</p>
<p>Even so, the Bucs could give Clark more targets if he is impressive enough, as I doubt they wouldn&#8217;t give him more opportunities if he plays well enough. That may not happen with his age and injury history, and there are question marks surrounding him. If he gets 65 targets and catches 65% of them, then he finishes the year with 42 receptions and the Bucs will be content with that production.</p>
<p>Remember, these are only estimates of what will happen based on data from last season, but there is a new coaching staff, new players, and a new method. I tried to take that into account with the above projections, but they are rough. Even so, they give a good estimation of the break down of targets for the wideouts and tight ends involved in the Buccaneers passing game.</p>
<p><em>You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SorianoJoe">@SorianoJoe</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Like us on Facebook <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Pewter-Plank/127859817253940">here</a> and follow us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/ThePewterPlank">@ThePewterPlank</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver News: Preston Parker</title>
		<link>http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/22/tampa-bay-buccaneers-wide-receiver-news-preston-parker/</link>
		<comments>http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/22/tampa-bay-buccaneers-wide-receiver-news-preston-parker/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 May 2012 16:42:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joe Soriano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bucs]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thepewterplank.com/?p=8030</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made some big changes at the tight end positions yesterday, and they made some small moves with the wide receiver core today. &#160; Preston Parker was given a one-year extension worth $1 million, with $50,000 of that coming in guaranteed money. He signed a one-year deal worth $540,000 in April, and [...]</p><p><a href="http://thepewterplank.com/2012/05/22/tampa-bay-buccaneers-wide-receiver-news-preston-parker/">Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver News: Preston Parker</a> - <a href="http://thepewterplank.com">The Pewter Plank</a> - <a href="http://thepewterplank.com">The Pewter Plank - A Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made some big changes at the tight end positions yesterday, and they made some small moves with the wide receiver core today.</p>
<div id="attachment_8031" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 240px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/50/files/2012/05/6253678.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8031" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/50/files/2012/05/6253678-230x300.jpg" alt="" width="230" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">May 15, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Preston Parker (87) works out during organized team activities at One Buc. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Preston Parker was given a one-year extension worth $1 million, with $50,000 of that coming in guaranteed money. He signed a one-year deal worth $540,000 in April, and the Bucs were able to buy out Parker&#8217;s RFA year in 2013 with this extension. $1 million is cheaper than what the Bucs would have paid him if he became a restricted free agent, so this make sense for the Bucs.</p>
<p>Parker had a breakout year for the team with 40 catches for 554 yards and three touchdowns last year. He was the most consistent receiver on the team, in a season that saw too much inconsistency from the position. While he wasn&#8217;t great, Parker didn&#8217;t make mistakes and was a solid WR for the team.</p>
<p>He hauled in 62.5% of the passes thrown at him for a total of 8.7 yards per target while operating on short and medium passing routes. It was a quality year for him, and he will slot in comfortably into a reduced role as the team&#8217;s No. 4 receiver. In fact, he is one of the better No. 4 wideouts in the league.</p>
<p>Wide receiver Dezmon Briscoe reported for the second week of OTAs after missing the first week, and he will need to be at his best in order to receive a roster spot. Briscoe is the team&#8217;s No. 5 WR, but he enjoyed a decent 2011 campaign. He caught six touchdown passes and hauled in 68.6% of the passes thrown at him for an average of 7.6 yards per target. Briscoe should be able to at least get a roster spot, but he is fighting for targets at this point.</p>
<p>Undrafted FIU receiver Greg Ellingson played for the Jacksonville Jaguars as a rookie in 2011, and he was recently waived by the Jags before recently signing with the Bucs. He is a practice squad guy and could be cut after training camp. Ellingson was added after former Boise State star and current undrafted rookie Tyler Shoemaker was &#8220;waived/left squad&#8221;.</p>
<p>In tight end news, Luke Stocker was unsurprisingly named the starting and &#8220;every-down&#8221; tight end by Mark Dominik. The Buccaneers traded Kellen Winslow Jr. and then promptly picked up former Indianapolis Colts star tight end Dallas Clark. He is injury-prone and getting up there in age, but Clark is still a great pass-catcher and a difference-maker in that regard, despite being a poor blocker. Stocker, on the other hand, is a quality blocker and deserved to be the every-down guy, with Clark getting the targets as the No. 2 TE.</p>
<p>Expect Clark to get more targets than the Bucs, as the team will likely utilize his talents as the primary pass-catcher. Last season, Stocker was targeted just 17 times and finished with 12 catches for 92 yards.</p>
<p><em>You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SorianoJoe">@SorianoJoe</a>.</em></p>
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