Buccaneers tight end Luke Stocker sat out today's practice with an undisclosed injury. (Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Buccaneers tight end Luke Stocker began the yesterday’s practice in good health but that’s not how it ended for him. As a result, Stocker sat out today’s padded practice in sweltering heat.

Yesterday, Stocker practiced in full, but at some point during the practice, he came up lame and had to walk off the field. Stocker did walk off under his own power, which is encouraging. But he didn’t practice today, lending to the theory that Stocker suffered a significant injury.

Don’t read too much into that and change significant into severe. The bottom line is Stocker sat out practice as a result of an injury he suffered on Monday.

The focus shouldn’t be on today, it should be on the future. Stocker is a guy that the Bucs want as a staple tight end. They drafted him high enough to warrant that sort of expectation. Even with Dallas Clark in town, Stocker is the guy of the future for the Bucs. He still has time to grow into his role with Tampa, and his first years with the team shouldn’t be taken as a true representation of his role or talents.

In fact, one of the reasons that Bucs brought in Clark was to show Stocker the ropes in a way. Stocker is significantly taller than Clark, but Clark still managed to be a top weapon in Peyton manning’s offense for so many years. The hope is that Clark can teach Stocker to be a taller version of himself — something Josh Freeman will very much enjoy.

Greg Schiano is running a new system and he’s implied the whole way through that Stocker will be a part of that. This injury is just a set back but it’s a noteworthy given Stocker’s significance to this offense.

Jan. 1, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars safety Dawan Landry (26) tackles Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark (44) during the second half at EverBank Field. Jacksonville defeated Indianapolis 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Last season, the Buccaneers passing game was dreadful due to subpar pass protection and a huge down year from Josh Freeman. The receivers weren’t any better either, as Winslow digressed from a huge 2010 season and Mike Williams’s regression was even more steep and impactful than Winslow’s. Preston Parker was the only receiver who took a step forward last season, as the expected breakout year from Arrelious Benn did not materialize in year two.

The Buccaneers attempted 588 passes between Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson last year, and LeGarrette Blount and Co. combined for a total of 346 rushes. That leads to a 63%-37% ratio of passing plays to rushing plays.

Under Schiano, expect that number to change in favor of rushing plays to something between 55% and 60% of passing plays. I want to bring up an interesting fact from last season, and that is that Buccaneers opponents ran the ball more (498 times) than they passed it (481 times). The pass-run splits are due to play-calling and the team being down more and having to pass more, but one should still expect a 60-40 pass-to-run ratio at the very least with Doug Martin in the fold.

Below is how the targets were spread among each player (4 WR, 2 TE).

Mike Williams: 124, 21.4%

Kellen Winslow Jr.: 121, 20.9%

Preston Parker: 64, 11%

Dezmon Briscoe: 51, 8.8%

Arrelious Benn: 51, 8.8%

Luke Stocker: 17, 2.9%

Notice how the Buccaneers utilized Briscoe and Benn equally, but it seems like they have confidence in Benn in the always-crucial third year. Parker was the No. 2 receiver by virtue of targets, but Freeman was clearly targeting Winslow and Williams the most. Targeting Williams in his down year that heavily did not help. He averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt in an awful year after a terrific rookie campaign, but he will bounce back in year three.

The reason being is that Williams might be too inconsistent to be a No. 1 wideout at this point, but the Buccaneers made the right move and didn’t waste time trying to find a solid No. 2 or 3 wideout. Instead, they went right after a big fish and inked Vincent Jackson to a huge deal.

V-Jax gives Freeman his first legitimate No. 1 receiver, as Jackson was one of the best WRs in the league a few years ago. He will likely receive 130 targets. Williams will get around 90, while Parker will be set to get 50 and Benn 50 (depending on how they feel about him. The other receivers will likely get 50 “vulture” targets.

If the Bucs target their WRs/TEs 450 times next season, that leaves 80 targets for the tight ends. Thus, the tight end will be limited by 58 targets. In those 80 targets, 20 will likely go to Luke Stocker, who will primarily be used as a blocker in this platoon. Meanwhile, Dallas Clark will probably get 60 targets, which would have placed him 26th among tight ends last season.

That could change if Clark takes targets from Jackson or the vulture targets, but I doubt he receives 80 targets and will probably get 60-75 targets  this season. Thus, the Buccaneers are limiting the tight end’s role in the passing game, and they seem content with doing that. It seems like a better policy with a revamped receiving corps due to the addition of a bona fide threat in Jackson.

Even so, the Bucs could give Clark more targets if he is impressive enough, as I doubt they wouldn’t give him more opportunities if he plays well enough. That may not happen with his age and injury history, and there are question marks surrounding him. If he gets 65 targets and catches 65% of them, then he finishes the year with 42 receptions and the Bucs will be content with that production.

Remember, these are only estimates of what will happen based on data from last season, but there is a new coaching staff, new players, and a new method. I tried to take that into account with the above projections, but they are rough. Even so, they give a good estimation of the break down of targets for the wideouts and tight ends involved in the Buccaneers passing game.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

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Dec, 24, 2011; Charlotte, NC, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow (82) runs as Carolina Panthers free safety Sherrod Martin (23) defends in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-US PRESSWIRE

Winslow was targeted an astounding 121 times for a completion percentage of 62 (or 64, depending on if you use ESPN or Advanced NFL Stats) and an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. The completion percentage was down from his sky-high total of 78% the previous year, but it was still average, and Freeman was just as accurate throwing it to him as he was to anyone else. The QB averaged 6.5 yards per attempt as well, which is as many yards per attempt as he averaged while passing it to Winslow.

The rise of the interceptions were meteoric, as Freeman was only picked off once the year before whilst throwing it in the TE’s direction.

The problem with looking at interceptions and saying that it is Winslow’s fault is misleading, since it is rarely the receiver’s fault that a pass was picked off. This is especially true when the rate statistics (Y/A and Cmp%) match up and the INT ratios are way off.

Sample size is a major issue, because 120 or so targets does little to show how the player affects a quarterback’s interception rate directly. However, there are indirect effects that are worth mentioning and can explain this.

First off, Freeman was poor last season and threw 22 interceptions. He threw about 40% of his picks to Winslow, but struggling young quarterbacks often times throw to their tight end. Freeman’s protection from the line was subpar last season, so he was often rushed into decisions and had to throw an inaccurate pass to Winslow, which led to rash decisions and interceptions thrown to the tight end.

It is extremely unlikely for a player to have an incredible season one year and then fall flat the next year, but that is exactly what happened to both Freeman and Winslow. However, most of it falls on Freeman, because it starts from the quarterback. While Winslow was visibly worse last season, so was Freeman and a receiver cannot dictate what type of pass he gets from the QB. Winslow should have done a better job and had a poor year, but he wasn’t that bad and certainly didn’t hurt the team as a pass-catcher, contrary to popular belief.

Some people are going as far as saying that the Bucs would have been better getting rid of Winslow, which is true in that he is a poor blocker and is getting old, but they are also saying that he is a poor pass catcher due to these numbers. That simply isn’t true, because they are twisting the stats.

Numbers can only tell you what you want them to tell you, because, without doing due diligence, you can come up to vastly wrong conclusions. The Bucs are better off without Kellen Winslow Jr. due to factors such as poor blocking and decreasing morale, but those who are criticizing him due to these stats are basically saying that they would rather have a replacement-level TE (like Jeff King) than Winslow. That’s crazy talk, because Winslow is still one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. The Bucs are better off platooning Luke Stocker and Dallas Clark, but it isn’t like Winslow is to blame for Freeman’s struggles. After all, Freeman was just as innaccurate an inefficient while throwing to Winslow as he was while throwing it to everyone else.

Again, young QBs love throwing it to tight ends, especially when they are in doubt. He was facing double teams as a result, because teams knew that Freeman would target him. The quarterback was under stress in the pocket and had to make a quick decision to the TE on a medium or short route, but it wasn’t always the right one.

Even so, it must be said that Kellen Winslow had a poor year and needed to go; it’s just that his fortunes went as Freeman’s did which is south. The stats do show that Winslow was bad, but he wasn’t the main reason for Freeman’s struggles and he is much better than a replacement level TE. I would rather have him than Clark or Stocker alone, but I would rather have both Clark and Stocker sharing snaps and platooning to take advantage of Clark’s pass-catching and Stocker’s run blocking (Clark can’t block and Stocker can’t catch well). There is also the matter of him falling out of favor with the fans and new regime, and that is warranted. However, Winslow is still one of the better pass-catching TEs in the league.

He honestly did a decent job as a pass catcher, but Nathan Jahnke of PFF noted that he was much worse at breaking tackles. Winslow was poor overall despite above-average pass-catching, because he was a poor blocker and didn’t do the “little things”. He had a down year as a pass-catcher especially when comparing it to his amazing 2010 season, but he was undoubtedly more decent than poor.

So yes, Winslow is partially to blame for last season’s poor performance and Freeman’s negative statistics, but most of it falls on Freeman’s struggles and Winslow being the not-so-safe safety net. It isn’t completely Freeman’s fault either, and the statistics show that (the ones that aren’t privy to SSS like Y/A) it didn’t matter who Freeman was throwing to; he still had a below-average year.

You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter @SorianoJoe.

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