How might the Vegas odds change in the Buccaneers favor once the 2017 season rolls around?
Vegas has spoken and Buccaneers fans will not want to hear what they have to say. They only have the Bucs favored to win FIVE games. Week 17 is not included but a win would give the Bucs three more losses than last season. Doesn’t that seem a bit low? They aren’t favored to win one game on the road. This team went 9-7 last year and was within an eyeshot of making the playoffs.
The Bucs will have more consistency across the board with the full coaching staff returning. Mike Smith made their defense elite at times last season and with some carry over this year they should win more than five games. They have improved by leaps and bounds on offense. They are stacked.
The entire core of this football team is back for another year. Look up and down the roster. No key players are gone, and they have added players like DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. The predicted regression in win total just doesn’t make any sense. I know the Bucs are better and that not just fanatical optimism. The Bucs are a team on the rise and I will tell you what I believe the spreads should be.
Week One Tampa Bay Bucs at Miami Dolphins
Vegas Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)
The Bucs start the season off against an in-state foe in the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were a surprise playoff team last season at 10-6. They had to go against the high-powered Steelers without their starting quarterback. They were defeated 30-12 and the offense looked lost without Ryan Tannehill. Yes Ryan Tannehill has made the Dolphins offense competent recently with the breakout success of Jarvis Landry and Jay Ajayi. This off-season they really haven’t made any splashes. Drafting Charles Harris and re-signing Kenny Stills were their biggest moves.
The Bucs are vastly improved offensively from last season but still have question marks at running back and defensive consistency. How will the continued restructuring of the defensive backfield come together? Will Justin Evans be the impact safety that the Bucs have been looking for? The success of the pass defense will be key to overall success.
The Bucs are the better team right now but Vegas believes home field advantage will keep it close but edge to Miami. I feel the Bucs should win this game and Vegas will push the edge to the Bucs. It does remain close but Tampa takes a close one to open the 2017 season with a win.
My Spread: Dolphins (+0.5)
Week Two Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (-7)
The Chicago Bears are a team with more questions than answers on both sides of the ball. The likely matchup will be Jameis Winston versus former back-up Mike Glennon. However with the Bears drafting Mitchell Trubisky he could beat out Glennon in the pre-season giving him the starting job. Outside of Jordan Howard and Zach Miller the Bears have one of the weakest offenses in the league.
Yes, the Bucs defense is still a work in progress. The defensive backfield is likely to boast two new starting safeties. But, the core is still there. Noah Spence is back for year two. Kwon Alexander continues to improve each and every year. Vernon Hargreaves will get better and Brent Grimes has a couple of good years left. They should be able to overpower this Bears team.
Their defense is not much better but has some stability. John Fox is definitely on the hot seat this season but with the current roster, barring a miracle they are not a playoff team. The Bucs easily beat them last season, 36-10, with Jay Cutler getting a hail-mary touchdown at the end of the first half. For the Bucs this is their home opener and should come out with full force.
My Spread: Bucs (-8)
Week Three Tampa Bay Bucs at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Spread: Vikings (-3)
The Minnesota Vikings were the hottest team in the league early last season but then finished at 8-8. They missed the playoffs and did not have a first round pick in this year’s draft. They traded it for Sam Bradford who, at best, is the most average quarterback in the league. He was taken due to an extremely gruesome injury to Teddy Bridgewater that looks like will keep him out for a second season.
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They made improvements to the running game picking up Latavius Murray and selecting Dalvin Cook in the second round of the draft. They are still lacking at the receiver position with Stefon Diggs as the only major threat. They do have a stout defense but with a poor offense they won’t be a playoff team. I know that defense wins championships but they need to be better than the 28th ranked offense if they want to make moves.
The Bucs have a better offense at almost every position and this should be a good game. Jameis Winston is far better than Sam Bradford, this has been proven. The biggest question will be where the running game comes from. Will Jacquizz Rodgers be leading the way in the final game before Doug Martin returns, or will it be someone else off of the depth chart?
If in Tampa it may have been the Bucs by three but Vegas loves home field advantage. Expect this spread to get closer
My Spread: Vikings (+0.5)
Week Four New York Giants at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
This is the first Vegas spread that actually surprised me in the Bucs favor. If you have seen my Power Rankings, I believe the New York Giants are one of the best teams in the NFL. Their defense came alive last season giving them something they haven’t had since their last Super Bowl victory. Players like Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon took the Big Blue to a new level. If Tom Coughlin had these players he might not have been fired.
They also have improved their offense weapons. Adding Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram gives Eli Manning two big red zone threats they needed. Like the Bucs the Giants have a few running backs but none that are really Pro Bowl caliber.
Doug Martin does return for this game but what kind of Doug Martin are we going to get? Even if he looks good in the preseason, it is simply impossible to tell how he will come out of the gate from the suspension.
The Giants are a threatening team that can beat anyone and even in Tampa I think Vegas should see the Giants as the better all-around team.
My Spread: Bucs (+1)
Week Five Thursday Night Football New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (+3)
We have another slight surprise here the Super Bowl Champs travel down to Tampa for a prime-time game. On a short week they will have to play in the Bucs face their toughest two-game stretch of the season. Tom Brady has never lost to Tampa but he hasn’t won in Tampa either. In three games against the Patriots, the Bucs have put up ten points. The one game that was supposed to be in Tampa was played in London in 2009.
This offense the Bucs has is very different from the past, it may be their best ever. The defense still has to face the scariest quarterback in the NFL. Until he retires, Brady will be as dangerous as anyone in the league, and he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. With players like Brandin Cooks at his side, he might have his best supporting cast yet.
Bill Belichick puts fear into the hearts of young teams which the Bucs are. If the Bucs want to make a statement to the rest of the league this is the game to do it. However I don’t think they are ready for this team. The Patriots are going to separate themselves from the rest of the league, and that will reflect in the point spread.
My Spread: Bucs (+4.5)
Week Six Tampa Bay Bucs at Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Spread: Cardinals (-3)
This will be a revenge game of sorts for the Bucs. Last season during week two the Bucs were taken to town losing 40-7. Jameis Winston threw four interceptions and their leading rusher was Jacquizz Rodgers with 29 yards on two carries. The Cardinals were a better kicker away from the playoffs last season, but so were the Bucs.
The Bucs gained an extra year of experience while the Cardinals got another year older. They were an old team last season and Carson Palmer might not be around after this year. However, Larry Fitzgerald is still Larry Fitzgerald. He can take over a game by himself, and we have seen the problems the Bucs have with the pass defense. Maybe that will change in 2017, but we certainly will see a litmus test here.
The Cardinals have pretty much the same offense and an improved defense so the Bucs will have to show improvement from last season. Whether the defense can stop the Cardinals offense will be the key to victory in this one. Unfortunately, Vegas got it right this week.
My Spread: Cardinals (-3)
Week Seven Tampa Bay Bucs at Buffalo Bills
Vegas Spread: Bills (-1.5)
Like the Dolphins game this spread is picked primarily on location. It’s not like this is in late December giving the Bills a significant advantage. The Bills are a rebuilding team that has a solid foundation, the worst type of rebuilding team. They have players that can make them playoff contenders but their front office and coaching staff are new and might not be ready.
Tyrod Taylor was given another chance but the NFL has almost figured out how to stop the mobile quarterbacks. Their biggest threat is LeSean McCoy who is still an elite running back in the league. Outside of him their offense is rebuilding. Sammy Watkins has one good foot and their offensive line is good not great.
Tampa, on the other hand, is looking to take it to the next level. They are looking to jump from almost playoff team, to playoff team. The moves made so far will go along way towards making that happen. The Bucs should win this game and Vegas should realize how good this team actually is on the road.
My Spread: Bills (+2.5)
Week Eight Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (-2.5)
In the very first divisional matchup of the season Tampa takes on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been a roller coaster of a team the past two seasons. Going from 15-1 and the Superbowl to 6-10 and last in the NFC South is not the best look. Cam Newton had the worst completion percentage of starting quarterbacks in the league in 2016. They have added weapons for Cam in Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel but they did not help the secondary and lost Kony Ealy. Corn Elder was drafted but he’s not going to shut down Mike Evans or even DeSean Jackson any time soon.
The Bucs beat the Panthers in the final game at home last season by one point and that game didn’t mean a lot overall for either team in the long run. The Panthers were already out of the playoffs and the Bucs needed the win and a lot to happen to save their playoff hopes. As we all know, it didn’t work out.
Both teams added pieces but division games are always played close. McCaffrey was a weapon that some thought the Bucs might add, but they waited until later to add Jeremy McNichols. Can the Panthers rebound to what the team was two seasons ago, or are they stuck in a rebuilding phase that continues this week against the Bucs? The Bucs should edge out a close one here.
My Spread: Bucs (-1.0)
Week Nine Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints
Vegas Spread: Saints (-1.5)
Another division game after not having one for the entire first half, the Bucs travel to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The New Orleans Saints have had a tough time containing anybody on defense over the past few seasons. However they still have the offense to compete with anyone in the league. The Saints traded away Brandin Cooks to the Patriots for the ability to draft Ryan Ramczyk and Trey Hendrickson.
They believe Michael Thomas and Willie Snead are a good enough combination at wide out but they really addressed the running game. Adding Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara with Mark Ingram give them a fearsome threesome behind Drew Brees. Don’t sleep on Brees by the way. As bad as the Saints were last year, he still completed 70% of his passes.
The Bucs however have improved their offense to keep up with the Saints, no matter how good their defense is. Home field advantage isn’t what it once was in New Orleans but they still have a slight edge in my opinion. Brees is just that much better at home than he is on the road.
My Spread: Saints (-0.5)
Week Ten New York Jets at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (-8)
After back to back tough games against division rivals the Bucs go against one of the lower-tier teams in the NFL. I’m not saying the Jets are going to tank this season, but they should definitely tank this season. I know football isn’t like basketball, but with the draft very top-heavy at quarterback it should be considered before partaking in any trap games.
The Jets do not have an offense that will make Mike Smith nervous. No one knows who will be the Jets starting quarterback to begin the season let alone in week ten. Unless Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg are the second coming of Dak Prescott they won’t have a respectable offense.
If one of these quarterbacks was that guy, something probably would’ve been seen in practice. Maybe they will show it in 2017, who knows? If they had by now, the Jets wouldn’t be in the predicament they are in. Uncharacteristically, the Jets were also at the bottom of the league on defense last season. It’s going to be a long year for New York.
The Bucs could easily win this game by a lot more but more than a touchdown is always an iffy bet to take. I’ll give them the extra field goal.
My Spread: Bucs (-9)
Week Twelve Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Spread: Falcons (-6.5)
Coming off of a late season bye, and practically two straight bye weeks, the Bucs face the division rival Atlanta Falcons. As many of you know the Atlanta Falcons participated in the Super Bowl and then forgot how to finish a football game. The Bucs beat the Falcons in week one of last season but got shelled at home on Thursday Night Football. That’s how division games go however. They always go from one end of the spectrum to the other.
The Falcons have a top offense in the league but when you can pressure Matt Ryan you can comeback from 25 points down. The Patriots proved that, and the Bucs can bring the pressure. Their defense has shown they can play well but if you don’t turn it over you can score against them. The Falcons drafted defense with their top two picks to try and give Vic Beasley some help on the other side.
The Bucs will have three chances to beat the Super Bowl teams this season and with the familiarity to the Falcons the divisional games should be closer. These are huge games which basically count as 1.5 games in the standings. Ultimately, the Bucs bring the spread a bit closer, with Atlanta still the favorite at home.
My Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Week Thirteen Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Packers
Vegas Spread: Packers (-7)
In four career games against the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers is 2-2 with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Rodgers averages less than seven interceptions a season. While the Bucs might have to play in the worst weather all season there’s a chance this game gets pushed to Sunday Night Football. With the Packers as a perennial Super Bowl team and the Bucs up and coming, this could be like last year’s Cowboys game.
By that, I mean that it could get bumped to Sunday night. We would hope that the result is a little bit different. Seeing Jameis Winston run for his life on Sunday night is not what we intended. The time of the game would be the comparison.
The Packers would be coming off a Sunday Night match-up against the Steelers and might have exerted all their energy in Pittsburgh. The Packers should be easy favorites in this game but Vegas shouldn’t sleep on this matchup. It should be closer than many people think. For some reason, the Bucs just don’t get the respect that they deserve.
My Spread: Packers (-5.5)
Week Fourteen Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (-3)
Next is a matchup of the two 9-7 teams in the NFC last season, the other being the Lions who squeaked into the playoffs. Matt Stafford and gang made the playoffs over Tampa because they beat the Saints in their one matchup while the Bucs split with them. Many people wrote off the Lions last season because they lost Calvin Johnson to retirement and their offense was shaky at best.
Though they are another NFL team that has question marks at the running back position the Lions still have a decent offense. Ameer Abdullah is their number one running back and Theo Riddick is still their third down pass catching back. The passing game, however, is always going to be formidable with Stafford at the helm.
They improved thier offensive line and Jarrad Davis will help their linebacker core but they don’t have the weapons to keep up with Tampa at Ray Jay. With DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, etc…, who are they going to cover? It’s impossible to keep everyone down. The offense will be scary and they will just be too much for Detroit to handle.
My Spread: Bucs (-4)
Week Fifteen Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: Bucs (+1.5)
The Bucs biggest scheduled prime time game is at home against the Atlanta Falcons in what should be pivotal action with playoff implications. Entering the final stretch with three division games remaining, these are the most important games on the Bucs schedule.
For the second time in four weeks the Bucs take on the Falcons giving both teams relevant tape on each other to fix any mistakes they made in week twelve. The Bucs are still not favored at home against the defending NFC champions. The only way to change Vegas’ mind is to win games. The Falcons might not make it to the Super Bowl again this year but they are favorites to win the division. The Bucs can make another statement here because of home field advantage.
The key will be to slow down that offense. Whomever is running the football by week 15 will be an important player in this one. The Bucs will need to control the tempo, and that means run the football. On defense, they will have to get after Matt Ryan. The Patriots proved that there is a formula to take that offense out of a game. Tampa will make it close trying, especially with this game being at home.
My Spread: Bucs (-0.5)
Week Sixteen Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers
Vegas Spread: Panthers (-3)
Home field advantage for the Panthers according to Vegas, is worth 5.5 points. On Christmas Eve the Panthers are three-point favorites at home during one of the most important weeks of the season. A grind it out game will potentially make or break the Bucs playoff chances. If the Panthers bounce back like they did in 2015 this game could be easily in the Panthers favor.
The Bucs are a different team this year than they were in the past. This is a team that improves, and more importantly, matures, with each passing day and game. Don’t expect letdowns from this current crop of Bucs. This game could be make or break for many players on both sides and possibly head coach Ron Rivera. There is no guarantee that he survives a second bad season. If the team doesn’t rebound, Rivera could very well be on the hot seat.
The game could likely come down to the wire. I think it will be a little closer, like week 17 last season. The season might even come down to a Roberto Aguayo field goal attempt. Unless, of course, Nick Folk beats him out for the kicking job. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Carolina keeps the slight edge because of the home field advantage factor.
My Spread: Panthers (-0.5)
Week Seventeen New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs
Vegas Spread: N/A
Week 17 is excluded by Las Vegas because of high variance caused by potential playoff seeding, QBs sitting out, etc. With that being said I will still make a projection based on my season predictions. I feel the Saints will be better but the Bucs will be the most improved team in the division.
With the Saints likely out of the playoff race and the Bucs right on the playoff cusp they will have more to play for. Barring a lot of players playing above their heads in the Bayou, this will be another lost year for Sean Payton and the Saints. With more on the line and home field advantage the Bucs should be favored.
My Spread: Bucs (-4.0)
Next: Which Bucs UDFA's might make the roster?
Currently I make the Bucs favorites in nine games, four games better than Vegas’ five. With some other games being toss ups the Bucs could win 10 or 11 games this year. The Bucs are entering the tenth season of their playoff drought and it has a good chance of ending this year. Do you agree with my predictions? Sound off on Twitter or Facebook.