Had this play in the 1999 NFC Championship been called differently it would have caused a butterfly effect on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL as a whole.
For this trip into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers multiverse, we’re going to take you back to the 1999 NFC Championship Game. The Buccaneers traveled to St. Louis to play the Rams in what was being promoted as “the greatest show on turf vs. the greatest defense in the universe.” The 1999 Rams featured one of, if not the greatest, offense we had ever seen, while the defense of the Buccaneers had officially come into their own. Sure, they eventually won a Super Bowl in 2002, but an argument can certainly be made that the 1999 defense, and team, was better.
This was never more evident than when you look at the fact that, after they brought out Leroy Selmon for the coin toss, the Buccaneers forced a turnover on the Rams very first possession by way of a defensive end Steve White interception, and proceeded to hold the Rams offense to 11 points (really 9) in what was ultimately a losing effort. One play at the end of the game though could have changed not only the landscape of the Buccaneers, but the entire NFL had it gone differently. This is a world we’re going to live in for this article.
First, let’s look back at what actually happened to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for context.
Late in the fourth quarter, after the Rams scored what would be the only touchdown of the game on a gorgeous Kurt Warner touchdown pass to Ricky Proehl of all people, the Buccaneers had a chance to answer, and we’re driving. With 52 seconds left and the ball on the Rams’ 36-yard line, the Buccaneers found themselves with an unfortunate 2nd and 23. Quarterback Shaun King took the snap from shotgun and threw an absolute dart to Bert Emanuel who caught the ball at the Rams’ 23-yard line to set up a manageable 3rd and 10 in four-down territory.
Emanuel hadn’t quite lived up to the hype after he was signed in free agency from the Atlanta Falcons, but at this moment, he came up huge, or so we thought. At the time, the rules stated that if the ball touched the ground at any point, regardless of control, the pass was incomplete. It’s up for debate on whether the ball actually hit the ground, but for what it’s worth the NFL came out after the game and stated that the call was incorrect. Long story short, the Rams stopped the Buccaneers on 3rd and 23 thanks to pressure from Grant Wistrom, then once more on a 4th and 23 hail mary to the end zone that essentially ended the game and the Buccaneers Super Bowl hopes.
Let’s see how things would change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the catch not been overturned.
The drive that ultimately, and unfairly, stalled was the first time the Buccaneers had any rhythm on offense. At the rate they were going, they were certainly capable of picking up 10 yards in two plays. In this universe, the Buccaneers score, and advance to Super Bowl XXXIV against the Tennessee Titans. It’s here in the first (and only) Super Bowl battle of black quarterbacks that the Buccaneers are victorious. It’s safe to say if this defense was able to hold the Greatest Show on Turf to 11 points, then they were capable of beating Steve McNair and company. Just for kicks let’s say the Titans do still come up one yard short, but instead of Mike Jones making the heroic tackle, it’s Hardy Nickerson. Most significantly, the Buccaneers get their first Super Bowl in 1999 with Tony Dungy as their coach.
In the season that follows, the Buccaneers, riding a wave of momentum and walking with a different swagger from the previous year’s Super Bowl, get past the Philadelphia Eagles and advance to Super Bowl XXXV where the Baltimore Ravens await them. In reality, Super Bowl XXXV was one of the least entertaining Super Bowls due to the quarterback matchup of Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins and the blowout nature of the game. In this universe, it’s still one of the least entertaining due to the low-scoring affair thanks to these two legendary defenses. King vs. Dilfer isn’t exactly a clash of the quarterback titans either. Much like in the real world, the Buccaneers benefitted from knowing Rich Gannon so well, and in this reality, the same applies for Dungy and Dilfer. Dilfer doesn’t get his revenge against the Buccaneers as the Buccaneers go back to back, and King becomes the quarterback with the most confusing legacy since Jim Plunkett, and until Nick Foles. Sidenote, 2000 is the season where the Buccaneers become the first team to host a Super Bowl, not 2020.
Come 2001, there’s no reason for the Buccaneers to go out and get Brad Johnson, as King has been the quarterback for two straight Super Bowl titles despite his limitations and the defense and running game more less carrying him. King still regresses, as he did in the real world and the Buccaneers fall to the Eagles this time around. However, Dungy is never fired after this season since he has two Super Bowl wins on his resume. In 2002, Dungy and King do get back to the NFC Championship thanks to the legendary defense which still scores nine touchdowns themselves. The Buccaneers fall to the Eagles this time around as the defense can’t overcome the offensive woes, and the Eagles close out Veteran Stadium by ultimately defeat Jon Gruden’s Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII, ending the suffering of that fanbase early.
Going forward, the Buccaneers do unfortunately start to slide as they did in real life after 2002 with Gruden. The team still unravels thanks to inconsistent quarterback play and Warren Sapp jumping pirate ships to the Raiders for example, but there’s a little more to this story when it comes to the rest of the NFL.
How the rest of the NFL, not just the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are affected.
If Dungy is never fired, he never becomes the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. This means Peyton Manning more likely than not won’t get his ring until his final season in 2015 with the Denver Broncos. Also, if the Emanuel catch wasn’t overturned, the league doesn’t feel the need to adjust their catch rule, a rule that has since caused a plethora of headaches, so who knows how the Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant catches are looked at.
Back to the Buccaneers, come 2005 with Dungy on the hot seat and the team needing to replace Shaun King, perhaps a young gunslinger named Aaron Rodgers coming out in the draft doesn’t fall all the way to the Packers. This is certainly another fun possibility, but that could be a discussion for another time.
So in conclusion, if the Bert Emanuel catch isn’t reversed, the Shaun King and Tony Dungy Buccaneers are back-to-back Super Bowl champs in 1999 and 2000, but never get their 2002 win. The Eagles get their Super Bowl in 2002 while the Greatest Show on Turf have more of an “Air Coryell” legacy and ends up ringless, as does Peyton Manning until his swan song with Denver. The evolution of the catch rule is also a far different story. If there’s another “what if” scenario in Buccaneers history you want us to explore shout them out, and join us next week for another trip down to the multiverse.