As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Bucs fans, find April 27th’s NFL Draft rapidly approaching, there are a lot of opinions being offered about who the Buccaneers’ first pick should be. Sitting at pick #19 isn’t a high spot, but it’s still an area that allows GM Jason Licht more than enough leeway to make a play for almost anyone on his draft board. But is that leeway a good thing?
To answer that, it is worth examining how much trust the Tampa faithful should have in Jason Licht to steer the team through this crucial draft.
So, lets review the draft picks from Jason Licht’s tenure as the Buccaneers’ GM, from 2014 to 2022, and figure out whether trust in his process has been earned so far.
2014 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Mike Evans (7)
Jason Licht became the GM for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2014, with his first draft class coming that same year. In a year with a stacked WR class, and not much depth of talent elsewhere, Licht snagged arguably the best WR of the lot in future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans.
He would also add a few minor contributors like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Charles Sims, but the Buccaneers’ class of 2014 is inarguably known as the year they landed Evans – who has since become the franchise’s all-time leading receiver.
2015 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Jameis Winston (1), Donovan Smith (34), Ali Marpet (61), Kwon Alexander (124)
Licht’s next draft brought many more contributors to a roster that desperately needed it, even if none approached the absurd talent of Evans from the year before. Picking first overall, the Bucs (previously-quarterbacked by Josh McCown and Mike Glennon) desperately needed a signal caller at the top of the draft.
Licht’s answer was Jameis Winston. And while Winston ultimately never developed into the leader or player that Tampa Bay hoped for, it’s hard to say Licht made a wrong choice here. There was never any option other than getting a QB, and Winston has still outperformed the #2 pick from 2015, fellow QB Marcus Mariota.
The rest of Licht’s draft was outstanding. Donovan Smith, despite his occasional woes, has been a serviceable blindside tackle for the better part of a decade. Ali Marpet became one of the best at his position over the course of his highly-underrated career. And Kwon Alexander was the heart of a hungry new-look Tampa defense for four years – which is not bad at all for a late fourth round selection.
2016 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Roberto Aguayo (59)
Following up a very solid class the year before, the 2016 Buccaneer rookies were not at all up to par. Licht took some swings at some key needs for Tampa Bay, but with a class highlighted by inconsistent play from Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence there’s only so much credit to be given.
Additionally, the story of the 2016 Buccaneer draft class cannot be complete without mentioning Roberto Aguayo, who might go down as one of Tampa Bay’s most significant busts ever. An awful showing from the third-year GM.
2017 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: O.J. Howard (19), Chris Godwin (84)
This class can be looked at as a bit of a bounce-back year from Licht, though perhaps only because of the woeful 2016 class in the rearview mirror. Licht trusted the process on uber-athletic O.J. Howard, who turned in three solid years as a physical TE with occasional flashes of exceptional pass-catching ability.
The most exceptional pass catcher, however, came in Chris Godwin – Licht’s first 3rd round selection in the draft. Godwin, as Bucs fans know, has blossomed into a significant weapon for the Buccaneers’ offense. One of the best WR blockers in the game, and capable of making any catch, Godwin is a true talent. Especially adjusted for the relative value of the pick used to get him, Godwin is a tremendous acquisition.
2018 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Vita Vea (12), Carlton Davis (63), Alex Cappa (94), Jordan Whitehead (117)
Now Jason Licht is finally cooking with gas. The 2018 draft class for Tampa Bay is nothing short of masterful. Flying in the face of many Bucs fans, including yours truly, clamoring for secondary help, Licht secured Vita Vea in the first round. Vea, of course, has since become one of the most feared interior defensive linemen in the game.
The secondary was addressed later, with Carlton Davis slotting in as the Bucs CB1 since day 1, and Jordan Whitehead becoming an immediate impact player/plug-and-play starter. Added to this is the impact of Alex Cappa, who joined Ali Marpet and newly-acquired Ryan Jensen to form an absolutely elite trio at the heart of Tampa Bay’s offensive line.
Finally, it has to be said that while Ronald Jones never quite lived up to the potential he was drafted for, he was a large piece of the Buccaneers’ eventual Super Bowl run. Tremendous work overall from Jason Licht in this one.
2019 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Devin White (5), Sean Murphy-Bunting (39), Jamel Dean (94), Mike Edwards (99)
Yet again, tremendous. Devin White has had his issues, but is one of the most athletic and purely talented players in all of football. Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, and Mike Edwards each became huge impact players for a Bucs team that was rapidly gaining notice as one of the most complete and talented rosters in the league.
Even late-round picks Anthony Nelson and Scotty Miller became contributors in the eventual rise of the Buccaneers. And Matt Gay, though he left Tampa before the turnaround was complete, is still a very talented Pro-Bowl level kicker.
This was another phenomenal class from Licht who, in the 2018 and 2019 draft, did more than perhaps any other to eventually deliver the Buccaneers a Super Bowl. Without the incredible number of genuine starting talents from these two years, it is unlikely that Tom Brady ever comes to Tampa Bay – and thus unlikely that the Lombardi trophy follows suit.
2020 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Tristan Wirfs (13), Antoine Winfield (45)
What else can be said about Wirfs and Winfield that hasn’t already? What other praises can be sung for them? Since the moment Jason Licht drafted them in the first and second rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft they have been easily top-5 players at their respective positions. Tristan Wirfs might genuinely be the best LT in the game already, that’s how absurdly dominant he is.
The rest of the 2020 draft is a bit of a letdown after the infusion of talent from 2018-2019 (Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a non-factor, though Tyler Johnson made a couple splash plays) but getting a HOF player in the first and a guy who could also be at that level in the second is a wonderful job by Licht.
2021 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (32), Kyle Trask (64), Robert Hainsey (95)
Finally, the absurd run of phenomenal drafts comes to an end. Though even this class isn’t as bad as many Bucs fans believe. Picking later in the first round is a legitimate obstacle, as player evaluation gets exponentially more difficult, and picking 32nd overall is a tough way to land truly elite players.
That being true, it still can’t be said that Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has lived up to expectations. As expected, he has flashed athleticism and talent, but hasn’t been able to turn that into consistent production for the Buccaneers. Granted, he’s only had one year as a starter, and that marred by the injury to fellow edge rusher Shaq Barrett, but there hasn’t been enough signs of improvement yet for the Buccaneers to see him as a long-term starter. This is proven true by Licht’s decision to pull the trigger on yet another pass rusher the next draft.
Fellow draftmates with JTS include Kyle Trask, who has looked terrible in very few opportunities, and Robert Hainsey, who has looked surprisingly solid in an unexpectedly large number of snaps. Not Licht’s best, but a few low-level starting talents isn’t catastrophic by any means.
2022 NFL Draft
Notable Picks: Logan Hall (33), Rachaad White (91), Cade Otton (106)
Logan Hall is the pick that makes the previous JTS pick somewhat galling. Double-dipping at a position of need and having neither player become particularly impactful seems like bad process. Now, to be fair, neither has gotten much chance to show their skills yet. But the fact that Hall was picked presumably because of the organizations doubt in JTS, and then couldn’t even win the starting job, is worrisome.
Elsewhere, though, Licht keeps on bringing in decent pieces for a roster that suddenly needs depth help. Rachaad White was a solid day 2 pickup, and has earned the right to the starting job in 2023. Cade Otton has flashed potential, sporadic though it is. Honestly, the best player from this draft class might be punter Jake Camarda, who showed off an absolutely booming leg in his first season with the team.
Making no challenge for the top spot are Luke Goedeke, Zyon McCollum, and Ko Kieft – none of whom showed any indication in their rookie seasons of being around for very long.
Conclusions
So, overall, the breakdown shows a bit of a scattered data set. A few incredible drafts, one truly terrible one, and a few of them that were just…alright. Averaging out to about a B- grade. But the good news for Tampa Bay fans is that the clear outlier seems to be the atrocious showing in a weak draft class in 2016.
There have been many more very good drafts from Licht than the single bad one, and removing the outlier bumps his score to around an A-/B+ rating. This feels more in-line with how he’s done as GM, especially in situations like this year where he gets to pick higher than the very end of the first round.
Overall, Jason Licht has put together a strong resume as a team-builder for the Buccaneers and, regardless of personal preference regarding the draft strategy this year, he has earned the benefit of the doubt from Bucs fans when pick #19 comes around in just a few short weeks.