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What's Too Much For Darrelle Revis: Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overpay in a Trade?


Rumor after rumor keeps hitting the Twitterverse claiming the Bucs are on the short list of trade partners for Darrelle Revis.  I know there are people out there there are staunchly anti-Revis on every level.  But a smart Buccaneers fan knows there’s only one thing that matters when it comes to trades.  How much did you give up?

The rumors have anything from a first round pick, to a second and change, to a collection of low round picks. Also, there are a few rumors out there that name some players, mostly insignificant guys.

There are two important aspects that come into examining the right trade price for a player.  The first is the salary of the player, and the other is the physical comparison of what your getting to what your giving up.

Let’s start with the salary aspect.  Revis is set to average $11.5 million per year with the cap hit being in the $6 million range.  You have to compare this to the other corners on the market.  Brent Grimes, Sean Smith, Derek Cox are all available, and are all going to be cheaper than Revis.  But there’s no way you can say any available player is close to the player Revis is, when healthy.  So the difference in salary is probably a few million, but to me, worth the difference.  So unless Revis wants three or four million more than what we expect, we’ll eliminate that factor from the discussion.

The other factor is quality of players traded.  Let’s say the Bucs give up only the 13th overall pick. On the surface that seems like a monster price. But, when you take a step back and look at the draft board, it’s extremely unlikely the Bucs could get a player even close to as good as Darrelle Revis.  Meaning, if it’s Revis for any single pick, this year or in the future, the Bucs are big winners.

But let’s say the Bucs give up a package.  The package that the Vikings received for Percy Harvin was a 1st, 4th, and a 7th.  To make it too rich, you would have to land starters with all three of the picks, which is unlikely.  To make it about equal, you need to land two starters, which is definitely possible.  However, two draft picks turned starters is far cheaper than one Darrelle Revis.  Because of this, you’d have to say it’s essentially a wash.  Get only one starter, and Revis looks like a steal.

All in all, I’d say the Harvin price is about right for Revis. Anything more and it’s probably a stretch.  Anything less and it’s a great move.  All of this assuming two things, that he’s healthy and that he doesn’t want an absurd raise.

The Bucs now just have to look at the draft, the other free agents, and decide if a collection of each of those can match the talent of Darelle Revis. The bar has been set, hopefully the Bucs see it like a limbo, not a high jump.

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  • RussMillerWY

    It just seems like the Jets and Revis would have to give up too much to make the deal worthwhile to the Bucs. It’s in Revis’s best interest to stay with the Jets, because when his contract is up next year he will have had all the time needed to show he has fully recovered and is his old self again. No team will meet the Jets asking price in draft picks unless they can also work out a contract extension with Revis in advance, and at this point that would include an injury recovery risk discount which Revis would be a fool to desire. Factor in the rumor that the Jets aren’t allowing teams to have those kinds of extension talks with Revis’s agents and this trade possibility becomes DOA. No team will trade high draft picks for a player they might only get to keep for one year, forget the injury recovery risk. The Jets would never trade the best CB in football for a draft pick that would not yield even a starter, either. Barring Mike Ditka becoming the new Bucs GM, Revis will stay where he is.

    • http://twitter.com/UTEPMiners Leo

      This is a really logical thought process. I would be inclined to agree, but the NFL doesn’t always make sense!

      • RussMillerWY

        If the latest rumors are true and the Jets are willing to part with Revis for a second rounder, I’d totally eat every word I just said. That deal’s a steal!