Rumor after rumor keeps hitting the Twitterverse claiming the Bucs are on the short list of trade partners for Darrelle Revis. I know there are people out there there are staunchly anti-Revis on every level. But a smart Buccaneers fan knows there’s only one thing that matters when it comes to trades. How much did you give up?
The rumors have anything from a first round pick, to a second and change, to a collection of low round picks. Also, there are a few rumors out there that name some players, mostly insignificant guys.
There are two important aspects that come into examining the right trade price for a player. The first is the salary of the player, and the other is the physical comparison of what your getting to what your giving up.
Let’s start with the salary aspect. Revis is set to average $11.5 million per year with the cap hit being in the $6 million range. You have to compare this to the other corners on the market. Brent Grimes, Sean Smith, Derek Cox are all available, and are all going to be cheaper than Revis. But there’s no way you can say any available player is close to the player Revis is, when healthy. So the difference in salary is probably a few million, but to me, worth the difference. So unless Revis wants three or four million more than what we expect, we’ll eliminate that factor from the discussion.
The other factor is quality of players traded. Let’s say the Bucs give up only the 13th overall pick. On the surface that seems like a monster price. But, when you take a step back and look at the draft board, it’s extremely unlikely the Bucs could get a player even close to as good as Darrelle Revis. Meaning, if it’s Revis for any single pick, this year or in the future, the Bucs are big winners.
But let’s say the Bucs give up a package. The package that the Vikings received for Percy Harvin was a 1st, 4th, and a 7th. To make it too rich, you would have to land starters with all three of the picks, which is unlikely. To make it about equal, you need to land two starters, which is definitely possible. However, two draft picks turned starters is far cheaper than one Darrelle Revis. Because of this, you’d have to say it’s essentially a wash. Get only one starter, and Revis looks like a steal.
All in all, I’d say the Harvin price is about right for Revis. Anything more and it’s probably a stretch. Anything less and it’s a great move. All of this assuming two things, that he’s healthy and that he doesn’t want an absurd raise.
The Bucs now just have to look at the draft, the other free agents, and decide if a collection of each of those can match the talent of Darelle Revis. The bar has been set, hopefully the Bucs see it like a limbo, not a high jump.