Week Two: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs St. Louis Rams Analysis and Predictions

Sep 7, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh McCown (12) points against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Carolina Panthers defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-14. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a rare case when you call a game in Week Two a “must-win” game, but that’s exactly what this is for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last week, after all of the hope and hype spread throughout the offseason, the Bucs came out of the tunnel and laid an egg inside Raymond James Stadium against the Carolina Panthers. Everything about that performance, from Josh McCown, to the offensive line, to Doug Martin, to our supposed-to-be-feared Tampa 2 defense, was an epic disappointment.

The Buccaneers had a chance to start 1-0 and gain some momentum without the opposing force of Cam Newton, but instead, they faltered on every level and let Derek Anderson (yes, THAT Derek Anderson) take the game over.

So here we are: Week Two, at home, in a very similar scenario. With Sam Bradford out for the year, and backup quarterback Shaun Hill banged up, the Rams might be forced to start Austin Davis at quarterback. Davis was not only an undrafted free agent in 2012, but he was also a walk on at the college level at Southern Miss. Translation: the guy doesn’t have too much raw talent, but has to be a hard worker.

He saw his first regular season action last week against the Minnesota Vikings, throwing for 192 yards, one interception, and a QB rating of 76.7. If Davis makes the start, Tampa Bay must feast on the weak, although it could be tough sledding in regards to the Buccaneers getting pressure. The Buccaneers will be without both of their starters at defensive end this week, as Michael Johnson has been ruled out, and Adrian Clayborn is officially done for the year. Tampa Bay will be relying heavily on William Gholston and the returning Larry English. Gholston had an impressive 2013 for what was expected of him, and English had a great preseason, so the duo has some potential.

Still, whatever our defense does, this Buccaneer offense has to match.

Josh McCown will look to redeem himself this week after a dismal performance against the Panthers. I would post the stats, but the absolutely do not matter in this case. If you’re the type of fan who prefers in the “eye test” when judging talent, then you know that McCown failed the “eye test” by a landslide. His confidence could be completely shot, but there are two other factors that will play a big part in McCown rising to the occasion this afternoon.

The first is the offensive line. The Bucs face a huge challenge this week just as they did last week, a front seven that can very well take over a game. Led by the monstrous Robert Quinn, the Rams will look to get easy penetration and kill the Buccaneers’ plays before they even begin. It will be interesting to see if Logan Mankins can suit up, as he was injured last week. If he can play, he’ll play a big part in stopping Quinn, who is likely to draw double-teams with Chris Long out for St. Louis.

The second factor to McCown’s success is Tampa Bay’s running game. Doug Martin is likely to play this week after his terrible outing against Carolina. Nine carries for nine yards just isn’t going to cut it at any level, so the Buccaneers have to get Martin going early and often. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Bobby Rainey as well, as I know that the Bucs weren’t too happy with Martin’s pass-blocking in Week One, which used to be a strength in his game.

I hate to be that guy, but the X-factor in today’s game is special teams, without a doubt. You have two teams here that will struggle to move the football, and there are two points of emphasis that could tip the game into their favor: field position, and field goals. Solomon Patton needs to have a solid day returning kicks and punts, as his team will rely on him to set them up with an easy scoring drive or two. Patrick Murray might also appreciate that. The Bucs’ new kicker wasn’t given the opportunity to attempt a long field goal last week, which would have helped the Buccaneers in their efforts to come back late in the game. Murray claims that his range is about 55 yards right now, so we’ll see if Lovie Smith decides to let him loose should the Bucs find themselves in a similar scenario this week.

The ultimate key to the game, however, is turnovers. They are what a zone defense lives and breathes by. You drop into a zone, keep the play in front of you, and wait for the other team to make a mistake. When they do, you pounce.

Tampa Bay failed to create those mistakes last week. They didn’t get pressure on Derek Anderson in time, and the former Browns Pro Bowler picked that zone defense apart. This week, they will either face Shaun Hill (who is usually a backup) or Austin Davis (who really has no business starting in an NFL game). If Tampa Bay can’t force either one of those guys into a mistake that will give us the ball, then it is going to be a very long day.

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PREDICTION:

I call this game a “must-win” for a few different reasons.

The first is because this game is the final one at home before a three-game road stretch. The Buccaneers will have a short week to prepare for the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, so this game is a much-needed confidence booster. If the Bucs win, it will help a little. If they win big, it will help a lot. If they lose? This team might not get their first win for a while.

Add that with the fact that for the 2nd-straight week, we are facing a team with issues at quarterback. And while we have quarterback troubles of our own, it is up to our defense to take games over, and this is the day that should happen.

If I had to be realistic with myself, I would say that this game will be Buc ball to the core. Tampa Bay will find themselves in another defensive struggle but there is no excuse: Josh McCown has to be better today. I’ve seen Mike Glennon play in 2013, and while I’m not his biggest fan, I’ve seen him play a whole lot better than what we saw from McCown in Week One. The Bucs will need to establish the running game this week, control the clock, and take advantage of the size of their receivers when the defense starts to creep up. My surprise player of the game is Solomon Patton, but I think Lavonte David does the defense’s heavy lifting.

Final Score: Buccaneers 18, Rams 15.