How the Draft Value Chart Proves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Were Wise to Not Trade Into the First Round of the NFL Draft


Apr 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee) is introduced as the number twenty-nine overall pick to the Minnesota Vikings during the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded their first overall selection at number 13 to the Jets a few days ago in the much discussed Darelle Revis deal. But many believed the Bucs time in the first round didn’t end there. A lot of talk about moving back into the first round was buzzing around the Tampa area, but after 32 picks, the Buccaneers decided to stand pat.

It wasn’t because trades weren’t there to be had. Five first round selections were swapped Thursday night including nine different teams. The two that made the most noise were the Dolphins jumping up nine slots in a deal with the Raiders to grab DE Dion Jordan and the Vikings giving up four picks in exchange for number 29 where they selected WR Cordaralle Patterson.

But just because the trades were available doesn’t mean the Buccaneers missed a chance to get back into the first round. Based on the standard chart, three deals went in the favor of the team moving down. However, many, including myself, feel as though the gap between the the lower end of the first round and the top to middle of the second round was not as steep. Thus the chart is watered down a little bit meaning we should take some value away from the higher picks.

So, let’s use the draft chart to see where each of these deals landed, and then slot in what the Bucs would have had to deal to make the same or similar moves, starting with the most unrealistic.

Raiders 3rd (2200) for Dolphins 12th (1200) and 42nd (480) = Dolphins, team moving up, +520

If the Bucs wanted to make this deal they would have had to come up with 1620 draft points. Well, the Buccaneers only have 875.6. No matter how you water down the values here, the Bucs still come up short. Yes, the Dolphins got great value here, but as for us here in Tampa Bay, couldn’t do it even if we wanted to, not to mention seven picks for one usually doesn’t fly unless you are Mike Ditka.

Bills 8th (1400) and 71st (235) for Rams 16th (1000), 46th (440), 78th (200), and 222nd (2.6) = Bills, team moving down, +7.6

Pretty even trade here but yet again, the Buccaneers needing 1642.6 points to make the deal couldn’t happen as the Bucs combined is again 875.6. Add in a first rounder next year and maybe we are talking. However, most teams making moves down don’t value future picks nearly the same as current picks. The Bills needed a QB now, not next year. So all in all, once again, Tampa was no where near being able to pull this one off.

Cowboys 18th (900) for 49ers 31st (600) and 74th (220) = 49ers, team moving up, +80.

820 points was the going rate for this one. The Bucs actually were able to make this move if they really wanted to based on value. But do you really think Dominik was ready to part ways with 43, 73, 112, 126, and 196 (824 points) leaving him with just three total picks in the  2013 draft and after pick 18 no more until the 5th round? Yeah, didn’t think so. If you water down the values a little we might be able to rationalize this trade only needing 700 points or so, then the Buccaneers would have only had to give up their top three. Still too steep.

Rams 22nd (780) and conditional 2015 7th rounder (1) for Falcons 30th (620), 92nd (132), and 198th (12.2) = Falcons, team moving down, +16.8

Once again, the Bucs total value is 875.6. This deal came out to be 764.2. It gets a little murky because the Rams were willing to accept 2015 picks but the Buccaneers are still way out of the ballpark here. Giving up #43 would net Tampa Bay 470 points. The only way to get close to the necessary value without breaking the 2013 bank would be to give up a future pick. This is the closest we come to one Dominik could have possibly worked out, but it’s still a stretch with the stable he was working with in this year’s selections.

Patriots 29th (640) for Vikings 52nd (380), 83rd (175), 102nd (92), and 229th (1) = Patriots, team moving down, +8

The Buccaneers top pick after the Revis trade is number 43 worth 470 points. This deal, which many made fun of the Vikings for making cost 648. Meaning the Bucs need another 178 to make the deal. If the Bucs wanted to keep their third rounder it would have cost every other pick in the stable to get up to value. So, it’s either 2nd round and all the rest, or 2nd and 3rd in which the Bucs get fleeced by 47 points. We could talk about adding value to later picks here, but it’s not even worth the breath because winning a draft day deal against the Patriots is probably tougher than beating them on Sundays.

So there you have it. Deals were there, and the value was even there in two instances, but the Buccaneers simply didn’t have the ammunition to pull the trigger.