Could the Buccaneers make a move on draft day to ensure the selection of Joey Bosa, arguably the best edge rusher on the board?
To their credit, the Buccaneers have helped fill their need for a pass rusher, signing Robert Ayers to a free agent contract. However, signing a player that is 30 years old is not the end of the road. The Bucs need a young player to align with Gerald McCoy to create the rush that they need for years to come. They will very likely look to the draft to make that happen.
Ohio State’s Joey Bosa is regarded by many as the top edge-rusher on the board. Will he be available at number nine? Potentially, but using the most recent NFL.com mocks as a reference, four out of five say no. Three have Bosa going to Dallas at number four, and one has him going to Baltimore at number six.
So that begs the question, can the Bucs make a move to trade up and secure Bosa? Let’s explore.
For anyone who isn’t aware, there is a table, originally developed by the Cowboys but now used across the league, that sets a point value to each draft pick, and helps determine the value of potential trades. Take a look at the table here. The first pick is worth 3,000 points, the second pick is worth 2,600, and the values decrease progressively.
The Bucs’ pick at number nine is worth 1,350 points.
Let’s say the common scenario occurs, and Bosa is sitting on the board at number four. The Cowboys hold the pick, worth 1,800 points. With Tampa’s pick only worth 1,350 points, they need to make up a deficit of 450 points. They could throw in their second pick, the 38th overall, worth 520 points, making the trade nearly even. That would be sending 1,870 “draft points” to Dallas in return for 1,800, a difference of 70. But, a one and a two may be too much for the Bucs’ to part with.
If they offered Dallas a one and a three, they would be 230 points short. The Bucs’ third round pick is worth 220 points, so adding that to the first round pick equals 1,570. Now, if Dallas believes they can get who they want at number nine, this is a trade that has some possibilities, as the value isn’t far off. 270 points is equivalent to the last pick of the second round, which isn’t far off from where they would choose with the Bucs’s pick.
It is certainly something to explore, but the value doesn’t even out enough to make this a definitive scenario. The Cowboys would lose the value of a second round pick, albeit a late one, to gain a high third. It may just be too much value for them to give up.
Now, if Bosa slips past Dallas to number five, a trade becomes a bit more realistic. The Jaguars hold the choice, worth 1,700 points according to the chart. If Tampa were to send them their first round and third round picks, numbers 9 and 74 respectively, the difference in points comes to a mere 130 points, the equivalent of a late third round pick.
That is a scenario that is not unreasonable, as it would leave the Jags with two picks in the third round, and the ability to remain in the top ten to select a highly-rated player. They would simply lose the value of a low third round pick, which may be OK by them to pick higher in the round.
Next: The Buccaneers Have More Work to Do
It all depends upon how highly Licht values the position. If he decides he wants to hit the cornerback position, this may all be moot. If Bosa isn’t high on his list, same thing. But if he wants Bosa, it is not unreasonable that he will trade up to get him.