The Pewter Plank
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5 reasons to be pessimistic about the Buccaneers in 2019

By Cory Kinnan

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 28: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers walks on the sideline during the fourth quarter after being benched in the third quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay 37-34. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 28: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers walks on the sideline during the fourth quarter after being benched in the third quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay 37-34. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 28: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter after being benched in the third quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay 37-34. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 28: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter after being benched in the third quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay 37-34. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The data is not on Jameis Winston’s side

Whether you want to hear it or not, there is a slim chance of a quarterback breaking out in their fifth season in the league. The data shows that if a quarterback has not broken onto the scene by their third year in the league, then it is unlikely they will become a lifelong starter in the National Football League.

Winston is also 0/4 on passes over 20 yards this preseason, showing he is still inaccurate and struggles throwing the ball down the field. Accuracy is not a trait that can be taught over the span of a career, but rather something that you either have or do not; unfortunately for Winston he has not had it, so he does not have the ability to accurately throw a deep ball.

All offseason there has been this hype and hope that Winston would be fixed under the guidance of Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, but there is little data to backup this stance. There are always outliers to the data, but Winston does not face great odds to have a breakout year heading into his contract year.

Hope all you want, but thinking Winston is going to be a world beater in his fifth year could lead to a letdown. Whether Winston makes it into the 2020 season as the Buccaneers’ quarterback is yet to be seen.

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