ComPewter Analysis: Time to rank Buccaneers Chris Godwin among elite
By Cory Kinnan
How analytical numbers are calculated
When considering an analytical evaluation of a player, the two most common places to turn to are Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and Football Outsiders. PFF grades players based off of individual plays and whether or not the player did their job, even if it does not appear on the box score, while Football Outsiders measures DVOA.
DVOA stands for Defensive Value above average, and for a more elaborate explanation, you can find that on their website here. However, what Football Outsiders hopes to accomplish when evaluating a player is not the yardage gained, but rather the success of a play.
"“Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush.” (via Football Outsiders)."
An example of how FO would measure a successful play is by considering a three yard run as not all three yard runs are equal. For example, a three yard run on third and two would be considered as an efficient and successful play, while the same run on first and ten would not. FO then goes on to compare players of the same positions, so running backs and wide receivers will never be compared to find a league average in yardage gained.
As we take a deeper dive into the career of Chris Godwin and how he is performing in 2019, both PFF and FO will be used to give an all encompassing look at the season he is having for the Buccaneers.
SPOILER ALERT: it is really, really good news.