ComPewter Analysis: Buccaneers defense not as bad as it looks

Adding color to the numbers

As previously mentioned, the Buccaneers have given up the fifth most points, and the 12th most yards of any team in the league this season, yet according to Football Outsiders who calculate DVOA (attempts to calculate a team’s performance above the league average by grading plays by success and efficiency rather than black and white numbers), the pewter and red defense has the sixth highest percentage above average in the league.

By taking the league average of successful plays and evaluating how many plays above that average that defenses surrender, Football Outsiders calculates their DVOA rankings. On the season, the Buccaneers’ defense has surrendered 10 percent less successful plays than the league average; only the Patriots, 49ers, Bears, Bills, and Panthers have a better defensive percentage than the Bucs.

This would seem to indicate, that while the Buccaneers are vulnerable to surrendering the occasional big play, they have lived by the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy. While the black and white numbers would insinuate the Bucs’ pass defense is sub par, they rank as the 15th best unit against the pass, surrendering just three percent more successful plays through the air than the league average.

There is still room to grow in the secondary as Vernon Hargreaves and M.J. Stewart have gotten off to a bumpy start, but Carlton Davis has yet to surrender a touchdown (while he can get a little handsy at time). It may help if the Bucs could get a pass rush out of anyone not named Shaq Barrett, as they have just two sacks outside of his nine.

"“Tampa Bay has stayed above average on offense (10th) and has been excellent on defense (sixth). That defensive rating is mostly run defense, however. The Bucs are average in pass defense, but they are the No. 1 run defense in DVOA at -38.5%. It’s worth noting that the Bucs are the only team currently in the DVOA top ten that has played a top ten schedule” (via Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders)."

The analytics, however, confirm that the Buccaneers have been the best team against the run this season, stifling opposing rush attacks to 38.5 percent fewer plays than the league average. Vita Vea has been the unsung hero for the Bucs’ defense this year, William Gholston is having a rather nice bounceback season, and Ndamukong Suh played, by far, his best game of the year on Sunday against the Rams.

DVOA takes strength of schedule into account as well, and the Buccaneers have put together the sixth best defensive performance of any team in the league according to Football Outsiders, with the 13th toughest schedule in the league. The Patriots, Bills, and 49ers who were all listed above the Bucs, all also have top-six easiest schedules in the league as well.