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4 truths about Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston

By Cory Kinnan

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 02: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs out to the field before a game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on December 02, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 02: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs out to the field before a game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on December 02, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /
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TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 11: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass during practice before a game on Redskins at Raymond James Stadium on November 11, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Will Vragovic/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 11: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass during practice before a game on Redskins at Raymond James Stadium on November 11, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Will Vragovic/Getty Images) /

He has been average, even at his best

Data is the darndest thing; this time the data shows the greatest fears of all of the Buccaneers’ fanbase. Even at his best (in 2016 and 2017) Winston has not finished any better than in the middle of the league by the end of the season; if you were to chart all of Winston’s highs and lows, then pull that thread, it would equate to a pretty average baseline.

Looking at Winston’s DVOA and DYAR throughout his career, calculated to show a players efficiency against the league average and overall value by Football Outsiders, he has never finished higher than 11th in the league (2017). This season, Winston is currently on pace for his worst season yet, as he is currently ranked as the 22nd best quarterback in the league in DVOA.

Winston deserves to be in the ranks of Derek Carr and Mitchell Trubisky, but he has never cracked the top 10 in the league; as his career has progressed actually, the further Winston has come to a top 10 finish. If guys like Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Case Keenum have made a career for themselves in the NFL, then so can Winston.

Expecting Winston to be more than what he has shown thus far in his career at this point is extremely unlikely to be a realistic expectation for a quarterback grading out at a replaceable 60.4 according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Winston is an average NFL quarterback, nothing more, nothing less.

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