Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Why won’t the coaching staff adapt?
By Rob Leeds
A lack of analytics
A “football guy” is the last person you want to coach your team during the modern era. This term conjures up images of a play-caller that wants to establish the run, is slow to make changes and adapt, and hates using numbers above all else.
Most successful teams have a new position that didn’t exist a few years ago; the analytics advisor. Using numbers as a guide for tendencies and predictions is no longer just for baseball, and in fact, they could be more helpful in football.
Using a basic stat sheet, a pencil, and a napkin, even a high school social studies teacher can determine that NFL passes are completed at an average rate over 65% of the time, using Drew Brees and Drew Lock as the upper and lower bounds.
When looking at yards per attempt, the average falls above 7.3, using Kirk Cousins as the best and Sam Darnold as the worst.
Just from examining these basic numbers, anyone could realize that Tampa Bay does not have enough invested in their analytics department. If a team has a 65% chance of setting up a second and three almost every time they throw the football on first down, there is no reason ever to run the ball in this position, unless a team is trying to bleed the clock.
Running the ball on first down is less effective by nearly two yards per attempt, and every team keys in on this strategy because that’s how football has been played for over 100 years. Trying to establish the run has become a thing of the past, and teams have quickly moved away from this tactic. Tampa Bay has to act soon before they are left in the dust.
Trending. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a great position for the playoffs. light
The Buccaneers are winning games and improving, but to not take advantage of such a simple and widely-available skill is inexcusable from the coaching staff, and this team will never live up to its potential if numbers are excluded from the plan. This likely comes from the leadership of a slightly-stubborn head coach in Bruce Arians, but his best chance of winning a Super Bowl will come from adapting, not staying set in the old way.