Tom Brady: Fun facts, extrapolations, and a look at 2021

To date, Tom Brady has thrown 9 passing touchdowns in 2021.

Throughout 2 games. That leads the league heading into Week 3.

At this rate, with the NFL’s first 17 game season, Brady is on pace to throw 76.5 touchdowns for the Buccaneers. And because that pace seems absurdly unlikely, let’s temper expectations and get wildly conservative with our extrapolations.

Brady already has 9 TDs, but should he throw just 2 TDs per game for the rest of the season, TB12 would throw another 30, landing him at 39 passing touchdowns for the 2021 season.  That would be impressive by all QB standards and expectations. That would be one less than his 2020 season, where Brady ended up with 40 passing TDs.

Realistically, Tom Brady is expected to outperform his 2020 season in which he spent half the season acclimating to a new team, a new coach, a new offense, and all new players (sans an unretired Gronk!). Although Brady was throwing multiple TDs per game all throughout the 2020 season, he was still learning his skill players and still learning the playbook. In conjunction, the skill players were still learning Brady, and OC Byron Leftwich was still learning the strengths and tendencies of his new QB.

It is not far-fetched to imagine Brady doing better in 2021 based on 1) familiarity with the playbook and 2) familiarity with his wide receivers, tight ends and running backs.

So let’s suggest that Brady averages a tempered 3 passing TDs for the rest of the season. That would mean another 45 more TDs to add to his 9 TDs, bringing his season totals to 54 passing TDs in 2021.

That might be a very fair assessment of how the season will unfold for the veteran QB. Of course, this takes health and availability into consideration. Not just for Tom Brady, but also for his plethora of receivers.

Although Brady suited up as a starter for all 16 games last year, he was benched twice for approximately 4 quarters- or 1 full game- due to a few Bucs-winning blowouts at the end of the season. Such moves make sense; keep your starting QB healthy and provide an opportunity for your backups to get invaluable reps.

Let’s return to the projected 54 touchdowns for Brady in the regular season.  In his most prolific season, Brady yielded 50 TDs in 2007. That was the Randy Moss year. Only Peyton Manning has outperformed such results when he tossed 55 TDs in 2013.

With one extra regular season game to break the record, we can assume it will be on the minds of head coach Bruce Arians, OC Leftwich and QB Tom Brady that the opportunity to establish a new all-time high is very much alive and on the horizon. That alone might keep Brady in a game that’s already been won in third quarter instead of being relegated to the bench. But let us not forget what is much more important to the aforementioned trio: winning.

Winning games, winning the division, getting a bye… all of these things are more important to the team. And Brady is the epitome of Team First. Arians knows it, Arians agrees. So let’s not be shocked if we see more rushing TDs during the season because they make sense against a given opponent. Right now, the Bucs are pass happy and it’s a beautiful thing.

Ultimately, Brady and Bucs are poised to put up a ridiculous amount of points this season. How exactly those TDs look on the stat sheet is TBD. For now, the Rams are about to be their biggest challenge since the Super Bowl. The Bucs will take points however they can against their top ranked defense. But if they happen to be passing TDs, watch out!

Let’s go Bucs.

Fire the Cannons!

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