The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to bounce back from a difficult loss to the Patriots last Sunday. To do so, it won't be easy, as they’ll have to beat the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are coming off a loss themselves to the Dolphins and will be looking to avoid losing their second string of back-to-back games this season.
For Tampa Bay to be in this game, they’ll need to be efficient on offense with a balanced attack and put together drive-sustaining series. Getting the ground game going and converting on third down and in the red zone will be key elements to the offense's success. Defensively preventing the big play against a team that leads the league with 78 of them will be the key, especially after last week's showing. Shutting down the Bills' number one-ranked rushing attack won't be easy, but it will be crucial if the Bucs want to remain in the game.
In what should be a close game between two of the better teams in the NFL, the Buccaneers have a chance to win this game as long as they can win these five matchups.
NCB Jacob Parrish vs WR Khalil Shakir
Parrish will be asked to play a multitude of roles on Sunday, including playing sound run defense. But in the passing game, he’ll draw the matchup of Khalil Shakir. The fourth-year veteran has been one of Josh Allen's go-to receivers this season. He’s reeled in 45 of 56 targets for 457 yards and three touchdowns. He’s helped the offense sustain drives with 21 first-down grabs and a 10.2-yard average per reception on the season.
Parrish will need to play excellently in coverage to make Shakir a non-factor in the passing game. It becomes even more important if the Bucs can accomplish their goal of shutting down James Cook and the Bills' rushing attack. Outside of tough games against Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Parrish has done a tremendous job in coverage, and Shakir isn’t on the same level as the two aforementioned players. There’s a lot of responsibility riding on Parrish’s shoulders, but so far he’s proven to be up to the challenge.
LB SirVocea Dennis vs RB James Cook
Lavonte David will see his fair share of Cook, but Dennis should get the bulk of the work. Cook has been unstoppable this season. He’s just 80 yards away from going over the 1,000-yard mark and will be looking to get there after the Bucs let up an explosion of rushing yards last week. His 920 rushing yards are second-best behind Jonathan Taylor, and his seven touchdowns are tied for fifth.
Dennis has allowed several big plays to running backs in coverage and the run game this season, including big plays by Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s generally played well inside the tackle, but bad angles and lack of pursuit speed have left him out of position on big plays. He's definitely improved over the course of the season, but he will need to be sharp on his assignments against a dangerous running back
LT Tristan Wirfs vs Edge Joey Bosa
Bosa has found a resurgence in Buffalo with 35 pressures and a league-high four forced fumbles on the season. However, he’s coming off one of his worst games of the season as a pass rusher, failing to record any pressure on the quarterback. Meanwhile, Tristan Wirfs is coming off one of his worst games in a while, surrendering four pressures and a sack against the Patriots. Both players will be looking to bounce back to their All-Pro selves on Sunday.
All that sets up an amazing matchup between two of the NFL’s best at their positions. Wirfs needs to contain Bosa on Sunday, so it’s an afterthought for Baker Mayfield. The same goes for Luke Goedeke on the right side. If the tackles can lock down the edges, Mayfield will just need to navigate the pocket along the interior.
LG Michael Jordan vs DL DaQuan Jones
Speaking of protecting the interior, Jordan needs to step up this week at left guard in Ben Bredeson’s absence. Thankfully, Jordan has done a solid job at the position, going back to the first two games of the season he started and last week against the Patriots. Although there are a few plays he’d like to have back. If you take out his one start at right guard, where he’s not a natural fit, he’s turned in a 76.3 pass blocking grade. Unfortunately, he has just a 58.5 run blocking grade, and the Bucs must establish the run this week.
Jones missed time but came back last week and recorded a pressure and a quarterback hit in their loss to the Dolphins. Before his injury, he had two sacks and 10 pressures on the season. Jones has missed just one tackle on the season and has been one of the Bills' best run-defending defensive tackles. Jordan has his work cut out for him on Sunday, but if he can play like he has when called upon so far at left guard, it could become a matchup advantage for the Bucs offense.
TE Cade Otton vs LB Terrel Bernard
The Bills' defense has been susceptible to quick passes in the short and intermediate areas and the middle of the field. This is a matchup that screams Cade Otton. The Bills' secondary has been one of the best in the NFL this season, limiting opponents to just 170.2 yards through the air. However, teams have been able to push the ball down the field and move the chains with quick throws.
Bernard has been attacked at times this season, allowing 18 receptions for 235 yards on 25 targets for a 39.2 coverage grade, per PFF. This is where the Bucs can take advantage of the Bills' defense, especially if they can establish a running game and utilize play-action. Coming off a big game against the Patriots, Otton could be primed for another one against Buffalo.