When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers woke up Monday morning, they found themselves in a place they didn’t want to be: second place in the division.
After a tough 23-20 loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, the team has now lost three straight divisional games, and its grip on the NFC South has loosened. The Bucs still control their own destiny, but will need to either win out or get some help along the way to secure an unprecedented fifth straight division title.
All roads lead to the Panthers game in Week 18. The Bucs must win that game to even have a shot at the playoffs. However, they don’t necessarily need to beat the Miami Dolphins on the road this Sunday to lock up the division. Now that’s the easiest path, but there are tie breakers in place should the Panthers lose to the Seahawks and the Falcons lose to the Rams. The Bucs still need to beat the Panthers in Week 18, but they would have the tie-breaker.
The Bucs playoff odds per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats have them at a 58% chance to make the postseason, down from 77% last week. Interestingly enough, the Panthers, who currently hold the NFC South’s top spot and the four seed in the playoffs, have a 42% chance of making the playoffs. That is because the Buccaneers hold all the tiebreakers as long as they beat the Panthers in Week 18. However, there is a chance the Atlanta Falcons could creep back into the picture if they win out, the Panthers lose out, and the Bucs drop their game against the Dolphins.
That scenario is unlikely to happen as the Bucs should be able to beat the Dolphins on Sunday with rookie seventh-round quarterback Quinn Ewers at the helm of Miami’s offense. Although the Bucs have been dropping games they should win. 7-8 is not where the Bucs thought they would be after a 6-2 finish, but with their playoff hopes still alive, it’s going to take all hands on deck to recapture the NFC South crown and a spot in the playoffs.