The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a big decision coming up, and it’s not quite as clear-cut as everyone in the national media might think. Baker Mayfield’s contract is set to expire after the 2026 season, which means the Buccaneers need to decide this offseason how they want to handle those negotiations. And with most teams never letting their franchise quarterback play on the final year of their deal, it’s about time for the Buccaneers to make a decision.
There is no question that Mayfield has outperformed his contract after the way he’s played over the last two seasons. He’s currently the 19th highest-paid quarterback in the league, and it’s time for him to see a significant pay increase. But should the Buccaneers be the team to give Mayfield that extension?
It might be time for the Buccaneers to trade Mayfield
Mayfield is on one of the NFL’s most team-friendly deals as he’s taking up just 9.3% of the team’s cap space in 2025. That number has increased since 2024, where he was taking up only 2.7% of the cap. And in 2026, that number will rise to 12.5%.
Most of the franchise quarterbacks in the league are accounting for 16-17% of their team’s respective cap, and if you project that number forward in 2027 and beyond, that means that Mayfield’s new deal would pay him roughly $54 million a year in new money. However, there are already several similar-caliber quarterbacks making more than that per season, including Trevor Lawrence ($55M), Jordan Love ($55M), and Dak Prescott ($60M).
It’s possible that Mayfield could take a discount compared to those other quarterbacks, but that seems unlikely considering that he’s already done that once for Tampa Bay. Given his age, this will likely be his last big payday of his career.
But should the Buccaneers be the team to give Mayfield a huge deal for his age-32 season and beyond? There is no doubt that he is one of the top 15 quarterbacks in the league, but is he the right quarterback to help give the Buccaneers over the hump?
There is a disturbing trend now with Mayfield, and that is his inability to perform in primetime games. Since joining the Buccaneers in 2023, he has a record of 1-8 in primetime games, and he’s averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt. In his non-primetime games, he’s got a record of 24-12 and has averaged over 7.7 yards per attempt.
Primetime games aren’t the end-all, be-all when it comes to quarterback play. However, most of those matchups are against better teams, and that’s when the Buccaneers have fallen apart. To blame all of those issues on Mayfield would be incredibly foolish and it’s not an argument that any person should make. However, increasing the salary and decreasing the talent around Mayfield in 2027 and beyond doesn’t seem like a way to solve this issue.
The truth of the matter is that Mayfield has done a great job of beating up on a bad division during his time in Tampa Bay. The NFC South might be the weakest division in football over the past three seasons and the Buccaneers have a record of 10-4 in those games. But against better opponents, they haven’t been able to stay all that competitive.
Mayfield is a floor-raising quarterback and there are at least a dozen teams that would love to have him under center. He’s fun, he’s competitive and he’s entertaining. And for a lot of teams, that would be a massive upgrade over their current situation. For the Buccaneers, it might be time to think about taking a big swing at quarterback. That’s not to say Mayfield hasn’t been successful in Tampa Bay, but it might be time for a change in scenery for both parties.
The Buccaneers could easily trade Mayfield this offseason, and they would be well-compensated. That would allow Mayfield to go to a team that might be just a quarterback away, like Tom Brady was when he joined Tampa Bay in 2020. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers have a lot of warts, and it’s too much to ask Mayfield to cover them all up. The 2026 offseason would provide a clean off-ramp for Tampa Bay and Mayfield, assuming they don’t make a big postseason push.
There is no denying that it would be a bold move, but it wouldn’t be entirely unwarranted either. But if the Buccaneers decide to keep him and continue to go 9-8, 10-7 and win the NFC South every year, it would be hard to blame them either. They’ve been competitive with Mayfield under center and they’ve been widely entertaining. And for most fans, that’s good enough.
What the Buccaneers do this offseason with Mayfield and his contract will reveal a lot about the front office and their future. It’s not an enviable situation to be in, but such is life in the NFL.