Another tough matchup for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they look to bounce back from a rough Week 10 loss to the Patriots.
In a matchup of two of the league's most exciting quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and his Bucs travel north to face Josh Allen and the 6-3 Buffalo Bills. The Bills' offense has been a big-play factory this season, with 78 explosive plays on the year. Coincidentally, the Bucs just allowed four big explosive plays against the Patriots, and the three touchdowns scored off of them were the difference in the loss. Correcting their mistakes and not letting them carry over into a matchup where the Bills thrive will be of utmost importance.
The offense will need to pound the rock against Buffalo’s porous run defense, establishing its will early in the game. The Bucs must win the battle in the trenches and get push in the run game and protect Mayfield when he drops back. Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke have to keep the edges clean with injuries along the interior, and the receivers have to do a better job at separating quicker when the rush is coming.
Converting on third down and in the red zone will be paramount if the Bucs are going to be successful on Sunday. If the Bucs can perform on offense and defense like they’re capable of, the Bucs have a shot at winning this game. Here are my predictions for who needs to be the offensive and defensive players of the game and what the outcome will be.
Offensive player of the game: RB Sean Tucker
Expecting an expanded role in the running game, Sean Tucker needs to take advantage of the opportunity he has in front of him. As a restricted free agent at the end of the season, Bucky Irving‘s impending return means fewer opportunities for Tucker in what’s essentially a contract year. But even more than for himself, Tucker needs to have a big game for the Bucs if they’re going to pull off an upset in Buffalo.
Tucker hasn’t always had a lot of opportunities, but has generally made the most of them and did it again last week against the Patriots. While he only tallied 53 rushing yards, New England top top-rated run defense hadn’t allowed a rusher to go over the Mark all season. Against one of the worst-ranked run defenses in the NFL, Tucker needs to have a strong day rushing the ball.
Defensive player of the game: NCB Jacob Parrish
Parrish should expect a busy day on Sunday with duties in the run game and a tough matchup against wide receiver Khalil Shakur. Parrish has been excellent in run defense this season with a 78.0 run defense grade, per PFF. His first responsibility will be to limit James Cook and Josh Allen from taking over the game on the ground.
If the Bucs can slow down their potent running attack, then Allen will look to Shakur to help move the chains. It’s a tough draw for the rookie cornerback, but he’s shown he’s been up to the task this season already. I feel like this is a game he could get his first interception in, too.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Bucs 24
This should be a close game and a physical game as the Bucs try and set the tone in the trenches. And the Bucs must win the battle on the line in both phases. On offense, establishing a strong ground game against a weak run defense, utilising play-action, and extending drives will be the name of the game. However, if the Bucs can’t move the ball on the ground, they’ll have a hard time moving the ball through the air against the league's third-best passing defense.
The Bucs defense was embarrassed last week with three explosive plays going for 50-plus yard scores. They’ll try to correct the mistakes that led them to happen in the first place, but the Bills' offense has been excellent at creating them this season. Balancing the aggression on defense of bringing pressure but not losing containment will be a cat and mouse game with Allen all game, and one the Bucs can ill afford to lose.
Unfortunately, the Bucs are still missing too many key players on the offensive side of the ball to pull out the win in Buffalo. Hopefully, the potential returns of Ben Bredeson, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin against the Rams will help them bounce back.