Nothing about what happened on Sunday feels good, which continues a concerning trend for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
A 24-20 loss to a last-place Saints team is by far one of the biggest embarrassments suffered during the Baker Mayfield era, but it's not as fatal as it seems. While it was truly pathetic watching Baker throw for fewer than 125 yards and the defense get run over by two massive Tyler Shough touchdown runs, the Bucs head into a short week with full control of their playoff destiny.
More than that, Tampa Bay is a lot closer to clinching a fifth straight NFC South title than anyone expects, even if it feels like wishful thinking given the current slump that is blocking out all of the good vibes.
Buccaneers clinching scenarios after Week 14 loss are still very realistic
Even after a loss that drops the Bucs to 7-6 and into a first place tie with the Carolina Panthers, the math remains incredibly simple. If Tampa Bay wins the next three games, the NFC South will be clinched by Week 17.
Taking ties out of the equation, here are the main clinching scenarios for the Bucs even after Sunday's loss:
Easiest Path
- Win next three games, Bucs clinch the NFC South in Week 17. Even if the Panthers beat the Saints and Seahawks and win in Week 18, it doesn’t matter.
Buccaneers can still clinch the NFC South with a loss to Panthers in Week 16 if:
- Buccaneers beat the Falcons and Dolphins
- Panthers lose to the Saints or Seahawks
- Tampa Bay beats Carolina in Week 18
Even if the Panthers lose to the Saints and Seahawks, two wins over the Bucs would win them the NFC South. Bucs must win at least one of those two games.
Buccaneers can still clinch the NFC South with a loss to the Falcons and Panthers if:
- Panthers lose to Saints (Week 15) and Seahawks (Week 17)
- Bucs beat the Dolphins (Week 17) and Panthers (Week 18)
Buccaneers can still clinch NFC South with an 8-9 record if:
- Panthers lose to Saints, Seahawks, and Bucs once
- Bucs lose to the Falcons and the Dolphins but beat the Panthers once
It's hard to overstate how significant that first scenario is. If the Bucs clinch the division with a week left on the schedule, it allows one of the most banged up teams in the league a chance to rest and get as healthy as possible for the playoffs.
Say what you will about what the current state of the team suggests about the idea of a playoff run, their best chance involves getting guys like Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Ben Bredeson, and Baker healthy.
Of course, that's easier said than done. Tampa Bay came into Sunday's game with the exact same scenario but failed to lift off. Rather than being able to win the division Week 16 against the Panthers, the earliest the Bucs can wrap things up is the following Sunday against the Dolphins.
Assuming the Bucs lay at least one more dud before then, winning the division is still on the table.
Tampa Bay can still win the division, even if it loses each of its next two games. That would require some serious help; the Bucs would need to beat the Dolphins and have the Panthers lose to both the Saints and Seahawks, while also dropping one of their two games against Tampa Bay.
There's even a scenario still on the table where Tampa Bay wins the NFC South with a losing record. That would require Carolina to lose to the Saints, Seahawks, and Bucs.
All of this is to say, for as bad as this slump has felt, there's still light at the end of the tunnel. Not only are there realistic clinching scenarios on the table but guys like Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are coming back.
The season is no doubt on the brink, but it's not over yet.