Somehow, against almost all odds, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter the seventh week of the season riding higher than anyone could have anticipated. Despite a slew of injuries to key players, Tampa Bay is tied for the best record in the NFL and, more crucially, has control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
That's going to be on the line Monday night when the Bucs head to Detroit for a huge showdown with the Lions. With a win, the Bucs can gain another major tiebreaker over a fellow contender and would further distance themselves from the pack -- notably the one in Green Bay.
A loss wouldn't be fatal, and the Lions can't jump the Bucs based on Monday's result, but it will be a championship showcase either way. Both teams will have a perfect chance to make a Super Bowl statement on national television, which is why a major flaw in Tampa Bay's defense is causing so much concern.
Buccaneers' fatal flaw could lead to another shootout on Monday night
For the most part, the defense hasn't been an Achilles heel the way it has in previous seasons during the Baker Mayfield era, but it still hasn't been great. Notably, the Bucs rank 28th in redzone defense this season, which is the worst it's been since over the last three seasons.
Year | Rank | TD Rate |
|---|---|---|
2023 | 3rd | 42.6% |
2024 | 14th | 54.4% |
2025 | 28th | 68.8% |
This is bad on its own, but it's particularly concerning against the Lions. Heading into Monday's matchup, the Lions rank third in the NFL in redzone offense, which makes for a nasty combo with Tampa Bay's bottom-ranked defense.
Everything about this game screams shootout, as neither defense is coming into the game with a lot of hope. Tampa Bay's unit has obvious flaws and the Lions could be without five of its starting defensive backs against Mayfield and a high-flying offense.
It's also the premier Monday Night Football game, which makes it ripe for "Game of the Year" type stuff when it comes to both offenses showing out much in the same way we saw a few weeks ago in Seattle.
Tampa Bay was able to bend-but-not-break on defense in that game, but it wasn't a performance to be particularly proud of. The Bucs were gashed for over 30 points and got a lucky turnover bounce to eventually seal the deal.
Last week's game against the 49ers was more of a defensive statement, but it also came against an offense with a backup quarterback and some missing pieces on offense. That won't be the case against Detroit, an offense that already knows how to carve the Bucs up and are hungry for a statement win after a disaster in Kansas City last Sunday night.
Todd Bowles is doing a great job of flipping the narrative with how well the team has played so far this season, but Monday will be the best stress test yet. We know the offense can -- and likely will -- show up in a big way, but it's the defense that needs to start carrying more weight than it has so far.