The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be a 9-5 football team right now. A pair of divisional losses against the terrible Saints and Falcons has sent Tampa Bay into a full-on panic, and is causing fans to question whether Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield deserve another chance in 2026.
Still, despite falling to 7-7 and into second place in the NFC South, Tampa Bay still has a 54% chance to reach the playoffs, according to NFL.com.
It might feel like the sky is falling and the season is over, but there's still time to turn things around and a very clear path for the Bucs to make the playoffs.
Buccaneers playoff chances after losing in Week 15 are still higher than you think
Going into the game, Tampa Bay had the fourth-best playoff odds of any NFC team, at 71%. With a win, that number would have climbed to 80%. With a loss, it falls to 54%. Not great, but still a coinflip chance to win the division and make the playoffs.
Clearly, NFL.com still believes Tampa can win two of its next three. That would be enough to make the playoffs if the Panthers lose this week. If Tampa Bay and Carolina are tied at 7-7, the team that wins two of three games likely wins the division. That does mean the Buccaneers would have to beat the Panthers at least once, and probably twice, and it seems like NFL.com likes their chances.
The path for Tampa Bay to win the division and make the playoffs is still very simple. Because they haven't played Carolina yet, they can win the division at 9-8 if they best the Panthers twice.
That suddenly does not seem as likely as it used to. The Panthers, who started 1-3 (opposed to the Buccaneers, who started 3-1) are 6-3 in their last nine games. Tampa Bay is 2-6 in its last eight games. One team is playing the best football they've played in years. The other team is dangerously close to a full reset this offseason.
It's honestly shocking that NFL.com believes so much in Tampa Bay. Probably more than most Buccaneers fans believe in themselves!
To reiterate, the path to the playoffs is still simple, and the Buc's control their own destiny. It's just starting to feel less likely they can win those games.