For the fifth season in a row, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are preparing to play a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. We're in the midst of an all-time run for the Bucs, who wear an NFC South crown for a fourth consecutive season and have firmly established themselves as the most successful team in the division's history.
It should be a joyous occassion, but the good times are being challenged by the ongoing discourse around the future of head coach Todd Bowles.
He's been drawing criticism going back to when he was named Bruce Arians' successor in early 2023, and it's been a bumpy ride ever since. There are very valid things to be upset about when it comes to some of the stuff Bowles has done, with his undying commitment to his style of defense to some truly bizarre clock management decisions, but it seems those things have been blown up to define his tenure as head coach and weirdly drown out everything else.
Like Bowles to his scheme, some fans are so committed to the #FireBowles bit that it's robbing them of the ability to enjoy what was seemingly impossible just a few years ago. It's also warping expectations for what will happen this offseason when it comes to whether or not Bowles will be back.
Unless the Buccaneers get blown out in the playoffs, Todd Bowles will be back in 2025
It should be pointed out that Bowles' performance isn't the only factor here; the rise of Liam Coen as a top coaching candidate is a heavy thumb on the scale. Tampa Bay's offense hasn't looked this good since the hieght of the Tom Brady era, which is why so many frustrated fans belive the only course forward is to have Coen replace Bowles head coach.
Through eyes that only see Bowles' flaws -- of which there are plenty -- it's easy to see how this is the only successful future anyone can envision. It's not, however, how things will probably play out.
FOX Sports' NFC South insider and Buccaneers expert Greg Auman pointed out that while Bowles is far from perfect, he's not trending in the wrong direction when we zoom out and look at the big picture.
With their current 10-7 record to finish the regular season, Bucs are three games over .500 for the first time in three seasons with Todd Bowles as head coach.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) January 6, 2025
That, right there, is what we call improvement. It's not going to satiate the masses who want Bowles fired, but it does seem to line up with what the Glazer's look for in terms of growth out of a head coach who earns his way into another year.
It's also objectively absurd for a team to fire a head coach after a team won its fourth straight division title -- two of which occurred while they were in charge.
This is where context is important, though. While the Bucs have won back-to-back NFC South titles under Bowles, he's only barely above .500 as a coach. Tampa Bay is 20-16 under him, including a playoff win and loss last season.
That right there is part of the dichotomy of Bowles' tenure. While he's come across as painfully average, he helped get the Bucs to the Divisional Round in a season where they were pegged to be in the running for the No. 1 pick. He's shown improvement in both seasons, and has very clearly built on the success the team had last season.
He's also shown an ability to adjust on the fly better than most other coaches in the NFL. On the macro, he has led second-half turnarounds down the stretch, which are microdoses of what he's been able to do with in-game adjustments. Tampa Bay's defense allowed just 26 points after halftime total after the bye week.
- Week 12 - Giants: 7 points
- Week 13 - Panthers: 10 points
- Week 14 - Raiders: 3 points
- Week 15 - Chargers: 0 points
- Week 16 - Cowboys: 3 points
- Week 17 - Panthers: 0 points
- Week 18 - Saints: 3 points
Despite first half struggles, there's no denying that the Bucs lock things down after halftime. All of that happened with a depleted defense, as Antoine Winfield Jr. hasn't played since the first half of Week 14 and various other injuries have flared up to complicate things.
Combine that with the fact that Bowles has hired offensive coordinators in back-to-back seasons who might get head coaching jobs, and all of a sudden the prisoner of the moment criticisms seem a little weak.
They're still valid, though, and something Bowles needs to be mindful of. All signs point toward him coming back in 2025 unless the Bucs crash out of the playoffs in a blowout, which is, unfortunately, very possible. Poor decision-making, bad clock management, and an unwillingness to adjust on defense -- for a guy who has proven he can do exactly that would be marks against him that are magnified by interest in Liam Coen as a head coach elsewhere.
If the Bucs lose badly in the playoffs, especially at home to a rookie quarterback in the Wild Card and ebcause of the various flaws Bowles legitimately has, then the fantasy some fans have of him being fired and replaced by Coen might come true.
It's going to take a lot for that to happen, though. We've seen a second straight year of the sort of improvement the Glazer's look for out of a coach, which seems to tip the needle toward there being more ways Bowles returns than he doesn't.
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