The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the 2025 season with a lot of hype. Early on, it looked like that hype was justified, as the Bucs rocketed out to a 5-1 start with Baker Mayfield looking like a legitimate MVP candidate.
Unfortunately, the rest of the season didn't go as well for the Bucs. They finished with an 8-9 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019. It was an absolutely brutal finish for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations but they're hoping that 2026 can be a bounce back year for them.
Sadly, not everyone thinks that's in the cards for the Buccaneers in 2026. Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report recently went through every team's predicted win totals and gave a confidence level from a betting standpoint. The Buccaneers' win total is set at 8.5 wins and Gagnon felt confident that betting the under on that was the way to go.
"The schedule gets tougher this year, and I'm not convinced hiring Zac Robinson from Atlanta to run the offense will be enough to change their trajectory. Baker Mayfield has been turnover-prone and may have limited remaining upside at this stage of his career, and the Mike Evans era is now over.
The Bucs used to at least be the steady presence in the NFC South, but they clearly have the least upside in the division. They may be better than what we saw late in 2025, but nine wins is pushing it for a fading franchise that has averaged a mere 8.8 victories the last four years."
Buccaneers already being counted out ahead of 2026 season
While this isn't fun to read, Gagnon made solid points here. The schedule is more difficult this year and, as Gagnon noted, Zac Robinson is taking over as the offensive coordinator and he didn't exactly light it up with the Falcons last year.
It's also hard to deny that the rest of the NFC South is tougher than they were a year ago. The Panthers swiped the division crown off the Bucs' heads a season ago and both the Falcons and Saints appear much improved. The Falcons hired Kevin Stefanski as their next head coach and the Saints were showing real potential in the back half of the 2025 season.
The good news is that Baker Mayfield has a ton to prove this year. Assuming he's still not signed when the season kicks off, he'll be working hard to prove he's worthy of that shiny new contract. Even if he is signed, he's still going to prove he's worthy of whatever deal he signs because that's the kind of player Mayfield is.
The NFC South has also been a really bad division in recent years and the Buccaneers took advantage. If the other three teams fail to live up to the hype and the Bucs are simply just a smidge better than they were a season ago, the division should be theirs for the taking.
It's understandable why people might not believe in the Buccaneers but, until the games are played, let's not count them out just yet.
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