It all comes down to these final three weeks of the regular season.
Only a tiebreaker holds the Tampa Bay Buccaneers above the 7-7 Carolina Panthers for the NFC South lead. Whether an opportunity or a tremendous failure after a hot start to the year, the fact of the matter is the Bucs play Carolina twice over the next three weeks, and hold all of the cards when it comes to winning the NFC South.
The only way they can lose is if they fold.
A terrible 1-5 stint has placed Tampa Bay in this uneasy situation, but there's no more time to look back. Here is Week 16, and the players who must step up for the Bucs to win the division for the fifth straight season:
QB Baker Mayfield
This one may seem obvious, until you realize he has struggled this season. Especially since injuring his left shoulder, the Bucs scoring and passing production has sank. Thankfully, his reliability blanket, Mike Evans, is has returned to save the day, but Mayfield still leads the way.
Carolina has a mediocre pass coverage group that is middle of the pack in pass yards allowed this season. They're no Houston Texans defense, and certainly accustom to errors. For the Bucs to thrive in these final three games, Mayfield must step up and play the at the MVP caliber level he displayed last season.
CB Jamel Dean
Dean has been the crown jewel of the Buccaneers secondary this season, but he has no help entering Week 16. Fellow starting corner Zyon McCollum was placed on the injured reserve on Monday, effectively ending his season. Dean has enjoyed a dominant season in coverage, but the Bucs must rely heavily on rookie Jacob Parrish and rotating corner Josh Hayes.
Dean's 43.6 passer rating allowed and three interceptions this season are both career highs, and lead the team. The Panthers don't have a daunting pass game, but rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan will be a tall task for Dean. Tampa Bay will rely heavily on Dean in this matchup, and he must come up clutch.
WR Mike Evans
The offense runs through Mike Evans, despite the veteran amidst his age 32 season. Evans dominated the Falcons secondary in his triumphant return in Week 15, and the Bucs need this type of production again. His six receptions and 132 yards led the team by a long shot, and he takes attention away from rising star Emeka Egbuka, who has struggled lately.
Unfortunately, Evans must put up other worldly receiving numbers over the final three games to continue his 1,000 yard season streak, which is all but lost at this point. If the Buccaneers win Week 16, count on Evans to be the main offensive contributor once again.