Jaguars vs. Buccaneers prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jacksonville Jaguars' Weel 16 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dec 17, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes
Dec 17, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes / Tork Mason-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers playoff push continues this week at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Bucs may not face the Jags star quarterback in Trevor Lawrence.

Tampa Bay is humming on offense with the resurgent Baker Mayfield fresh off one of the most impressive performances of the season under center. With the Bucs rolling, can it win another game and seize control of the NFC South?

Here's our best bets and full breakdown for Bucs and Jags in one of the most high leverage games of Week 16:

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers odds, spread and total

Buccaneers vs. Jaguars betting trends

  • The Buccaneers are 9-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS on the road this season

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers injury report

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Trevor Lawrence - QB - Questionable
  • Walker LIttle - OT - Questionable
  • Brenton Strange - TE - Questionable
  • Zay Jones - WR - Questionable
  • Ezra Cleveland - G - Questionable
  • Andre Cisco - FS - Questionable
  • Tyson Campbell - CB - Questionable
  • Christian Braswell - CB - Questionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • William Gholston - DT- Questionable
  • Chris Godwin - WR - Questionable
  • Vita Vea - DT - Questionable

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 24
  • Game Time: 4:00 p.m. est
  • Venue: Raymond James Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Browns Record: 8-6
  • Texans Record: 7-7

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers key players to watch

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence: Handicapping this game is difficult with Lawrence's status in doubt. Lawrence, who has been battling a host of injuries, and now is in concussion protocol and his status is in very much in doubt.

The Jags offense has been weaker than expected this season after winning the AFC South last year, 19th in EPA/Play, but he is still one of the most impactful quarterbacks in the league. If he doesn't go, the Jags offense is a shell of itself.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield deserves a ton of praise for his play this season, emerging as one of the above average starters in the NFL, passing for 3,315 yards with 24 passing touchdowns, and leading an offense that is eighth in EPA/Pass. Tampa Bay will face a lackluster Jags secondary that is trending in the wrong direction, 24th in EPA/Pass since Week 10.

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

Lawrence's status is of course worth monitoring, which could determine the entry point for this game as to bet Tampa Bay, who I like in this game either way. Of course, if Lawrence is out, it's better to get ahead of it while the number will shift towards the Jaguars if the team's former No. 1 pick is active.

As for the matchup, the key is Tampa Bay passing game against the Jaguars defense, which has struggled of late against the likes of the Ravens last week but also the Browns (31 points) and Bengals (34 points), who each started backup quarterbacks.

I believe the Bucs passing game is coming on strong at the right time and this is a perfect storm for the team to continue its fine play on offense.

As for the defense, Tampa Bay's defense is bottom third of the league in terms of EPA/Play, but the Jags offense is not as good as we expected heading into the season. As noted above this team is 19th in EPA/Play and may be starting a quarterback that was in concussion protocol all week on top of a knee and ankle injury. This Jags offense may be shuttering to a halt this season.

I'm riding the momentum of the home team to win a coin flip type game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!