ESPN's FPI algorithm predicts huge playoff upset for Buccaneers

With the start of the regular season just days away, everyone is making last-minute predictions about how things will go. ESPN is getting scientific, using its Football Power Index algorithm to simulate the season before it even happens.

Let's hope things turn out the way the math added up when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

A big narrative around the Bucs this season is whether they can repeat last year's unexpected success. Tampa Bay was supposed to tank for a top draft pick and perform a hard reset after Tom Brady retired, but nobody in the building got the memo.

Instead, Baker Mayfield led the team to a third-straight division title and a trip to the NFC Divisional Round, something that ESPN thinks is going to happen again this year.

ESPN predicts Buccaneers will upset Packers in NFC Playoffs

According to ESPN's FPI simulation of the season, the Buccaneers finished 10-7 and once again claimed an NFC South title. Not only that, but the model has Tampa Bay pulling off another playoff upset at home over a team experts will have surely picked to win the game.

"It didn't end there, as the Buccaneers pulled off a 26-20 home upset over the Green Bay Packers to advance to the divisional round for the second straight season. They ended up falling to the 49ers 30-16, but 2024 confirmed that the success of the Bucs' current core has been no fluke," Walder wrote.

There’s so much to pick through with this prediction, all of it good, and the best part isn’t even the playoff upset. 

Jason Licht spent the offseason bringing back key players like Baker, Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield Jr., while getting ahead of things and giving Tristan Wirfs a historic deal. Despite the fact that the roster went as far as it did, and got better with a fantastic rookie class, experts are either neutral or down on the Bucs to be able to run things back. 

Winning a fourth straight division title would be historical for the Bucs, and a fifth consecutive trip to the playoffs would make their post-Brady glow-up undeniable.

ESPN’s model has the season once again ending in the NFC Divisional round, this time with a loss to the 49ers. The Bucs have prided themselves on year-to-year improvement so this would be considered a plateau, but even that is sort of incredible.

This was a team that everyone expected to be lost a year ago, and now getting to the second round of the playoffs is the floor.

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