5 reasons the Buccaneers will surpass their over/under win projection in 2024

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gearing up for the 2024 season with a chip on their shoulder, eager to prove the oddsmakers wrong once again. Despite the team's recent string of successes, which include four consecutive playoff appearances and a Super Bowl victory, expectations for this season remain curiously low. Setting the win total at 7.5 seems to underestimate a squad that has consistently demonstrated tenacity and exceeded expectations.

This year, the Buccaneers are determined to defy these tempered forecasts and showcase their capabilities on the gridiron again. With a mix of veteran leadership and emerging talent, the team is well-positioned to challenge any doubters picking against them. The 2024 season will be an interesting test for the Buccaneers, who aim to exceed the modest win total and make another deep playoff run.

As the season unfolds, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how the Buccaneers tackle their opponents on the schedule and maximize the potential of their key players. Tampa Bay's journey this year promises to be one for the books as 2024 is shaping up to be a thrilling ride.

1. Make it 5 Straight Playoff Appearances

The most obvious reason to believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will exceed 7.5 wins in 2024? They’ve done it each of the last four years. 

While Tom Brady was the iconic leader for three of those seasons, 2023 revealed that the Buccaneers' success was built on more than just a legendary quarterback. Baker Mayfield stepped into significant shoes and demonstrated his capabilities as a quality signal-caller. However, the team’s division title and impressive playoff run were the results of a well-rounded roster.

Oddsmakers seem to overlook the depth and resilience of this group. The Buccaneers not only retained their core talent but also strategically enhanced their lineup. The Bucs are bringing back or clearly upgrading at almost every starting position.

With emerging stars ready to step up and fill the gaps left by the few key departures, LG Aaron Stinnie’s absence may be the hardest to recoup from. General Manager Jason Licht’s savvy moves in adding Sua Opeta and Ben Bredeson, along with drafting Graham Barton as their first-round pick, present a promising plan to propel the position forward. 

If Robert Hainsey can overcome his 2023 struggles (50.2 PFF grade ranked 32/36 Centers), this offensive line will transform from a weakness into a strength, providing Mayfield the protection he needs to drive down the field and put up points consistently. 

Besides the offensive line, Tampa kept a large amount of continuity in the locker room, which should help this roster pick up right where it left off as the NFC South’s No.1 team to beat. Despite narrowly missing an NFC Championship Game appearance last year, the Buccaneers are facing the 10th easiest schedule in 2024 (according to projected win totals). 

There are three very difficult games on Tampa’s schedule in 2024: 

• Week 2 @ DET
• Week 9 @ KC
• Week 10 v. SF

Other than those three opponents, Tampa will likely be the favorite or close underdog in the other 14 matchups. Not only could the Bucs exceed the 7.5-win threshold, they could shatter it. 

2. Blue-Chip Players Lead The Way

When examining the league’s elite teams, it’s evident that success requires more than just a stellar quarterback or receiver. Blue-chip players across the board are crucial, and the Buccaneers are no exception.

Tampa Bay’s roster boasts a wealth of top-tier talent: S Antoine Winfield Jr., OT Tristan Wirfs, WR Mike Evans, DL Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean, and K Chase McLaughlin, providing the Raymond James cannons with plenty of firepower to launch them into postseason contenders once again.

These seasoned veterans not only excel on the field but also bring invaluable leadership in the locker room. Their experience, skill, and guidance is exactly what an NFL nucleus needs to remain competitive against the league’s best. With such a formidable lineup, the Buccaneers are well-equipped to surpass the 7.5-win mark and exceed expectations once again.

3. Sensational Secondary

While Tampa’s receiving corps garners plenty of attention in their own right, their sensational secondary is the true standout unit entering 2024. 

Antoine Winfield Jr. just became the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. Jamel Dean’s consistent performance over his first five seasons, coupled with Jordan Whitehead’s return, solidifies a secondary that will be difficult for any offense to overcome.

Tavierre Thomas brings a terrific track record from the Texans as he takes over for Carlton Davis as the CB2 while Christian Izien gained the trust of his teammates and coaching staff more and more throughout his rookie campaign. He’s poised to take a big step forward in Year 2, adding another layer of excitement to this cornerbacks crew.

The secondary’s ability to prevent deep passes and disrupt opposing offenses will be a crucial factor in the Buccaneers’ success. Their presence on the field will make life easier for the rest of the defense, highlighting why having a dominant defensive backfield is a major key to winning in today’s pass-heavy environment. 

4. Emerging Young Players

What might be most exciting for avid Buccaneers enthusiasts to witness in 2024 is the growth of their emerging young players. With talents like RB Rachaad White, EDGE Yaya Diaby, DL Calijah Kancey, TE Cade Otton, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, and LB K.J. Britt all primed to elevate their games, the future is looking very bright in the Bay. 

The Buccaneers also aced the 2024 NFL Draft, bringing in four high-quality prospects within the first 95 picks, bolstering an already talented roster. 

The balance between seasoned veterans and this infusion of rising young stars is a difficult one to maintain. However, Licht has done a magnificent job navigating this challenge to put the Pewter Pirates in the perfect position to win now, while also laying the groundwork for sustained success in the future.

5. Bounce Back Baker

For the Bay Bombers to have a winning record in 2024, quality quarterback play from the former No.1 overall pick will be essential. Facing a make-or-break year in 2023, Baker Mayfield cooked up a Pro Bowl season and came in third for the Comeback Player of the Year award. 

Playing on four teams over the last three seasons has given the Oklahoma product the perfect amount of humility to counteract his early-career cockiness, transforming it into confidence and respected leadership. The freshly-made hundred-million dollar man is the engine that can drive this team wherever it wants to go. 

Bringing Liam Coen in as the new offensive coordinator may have strained expectations in the eyes of the bookies after they saw Dave Canales depart for Carolina’s head coaching job, however Mayfield doesn’t see it that way. 

“I like the way Liam's installed the offense. He puts a lot on you mentally in the front. It is a little mentally taxing but it's good in the long run. It just presents so many different issues for a defense when it comes to their rules.” Mayfield said. “There's a lot more responsibility – line of scrimmage, a lot more double play calls where you're having to get the guys in the right positions. But as a quarterback, you want to have that responsibility and accountability. You always want to put your guys in the best position to have success.”

The coaching staff is giving the QB they invested in the keys to lead another successful season in 2024. Despite the oddsmakers having their doubts, the Bake Show is ready to prove the naysayers wrong once again and lead this talented Buccaneers squad back to the postseason.