The Bucs have a chance to prove they are among the upper echelons of the NFL with a win against the New England Patriots on Sunday.
Tampa Bay has impressive wins over the Seahawks and 49ers and has shown resiliency to finish contests, with four of its six wins coming within the final minutes of the game. They’ll need to lean into that against a physical Patriots team that likes to try and impose its will on opponents.
One of the NFL’s surprise teams, New England, made several moves in the offseason to bolster their roster, including the addition of Mike Vrabel as head coach. The Patriots play mirrors their coach, hard-nosed and disciplined. A brand of football with an emphasis on being physical on defense and efficient on offense.
Drake Maye has been extremely efficient with the ball in an MVP-type season, ranking first in passing completion percentage and second in passer rating. They boast a top-ten defense, including the top run unit in the NFL. Making this a tough test for the Buccaneers as they look to improve to 7-2 after a week off.
However, as good as the Patriots have been this season, the Bucs are right there with them as a top team to beat. Taking advantage of the Pats' weaknesses in the short and intermediate game on offense and playing the Bucs' brand of football will be key to victory. Luke Goedeke’s return to the lineup should allow Baker Mayfield to buy more time in the pocket and open up holes in the run game. Protecting the middle of the field will be key for the defense to find success, as will be continuing to find a way to win the turnover battle.
Even with the absences of Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Haason Reddick, the Bucs have the pieces to beat the Patriots. It will take big games by key players on both sides of the ball to secure the win for the Bucs and ensure they come out of the bye with a victory.
Offensive player of the game
TE Cade Otton
This could be a big game for the Bucs' tight end. New England has struggled when going up against 12 personnel this season, giving up chunk plays to tight ends. They’ve allowed 100-yard games to Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid and a 99-yard, two-touchdown outing by the Browns duo of David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. The Patriots' defense has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this season, working in Otton’s favor.
Patriots inside linebacker Robert Spillane has allowed 41 receptions for 412 yards and two touchdowns on the season, while Christian Elliss has struggled in coverage as well, allowing 20 of his 21 targets to be completed. New England’s safeties haven’t fared much better, allowing five touchdowns on the season. If the Bucs and Otton can take advantage of the Patriots' own middle-of-the-field woes, it could be the difference in winning and losing.
Defensive player of the game
S Tykee Smith
The Patriots are going to try and attack the middle of the field with quick, rhythmic throws to the tight ends and their slot receivers, getting mismatches in linebackers. Unfortunately, the Bucs have struggled in this area as SirVocea Dennis continues to find his footing in coverage as an every-down starter and Lavonte David has lost a step at age 35.
That likely means another big game for Tykee Smith, cleaning up tackles in the middle of the field. Smith has been all over the place for the Bucs this season. He is the only player in the league to have 65 tackles, two sacks, and eight passes defended. The pairing with Antoine Winfield Jr has paid dividends for Tampa Bay’s defense, and he’s set to have another big game against the Patriots.
Score Prediction
Bucs Win 24-23
This should not be an easy game for the Bucs. In fact, what was once thought to be a near-automatic win out of the bye has turned into a possible game of the year contender. Tampa Bay will need to match the Patriots' efficiency on offense with better performances on third down and in the red zone, an area New England’s defense has struggled.
The defense needs to continue to play complementary football between the pass coverage and pressure, and continue to find ways to create turnovers. Playing a clean game and avoiding costly penalties and mental errors will be crucial to coming out of the bye with a home win against a good opponent.