The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a big step back offensively in 2025.
There is plenty of context that explains why last year’s unit declined so significantly compared to Liam Coen’s offense in 2024.
Injuries are often pointed to as the biggest culprit. Tampa Bay didn’t play a single game with their full starting offensive line intact, and the wide receiver room dealt with key injuries throughout the season. Most notably, quarterback Baker Mayfield battled through various injuries throughout the year as well.
But former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s play-calling may have been the biggest factor behind the decline. Tampa Bay’s offense became predictable and stale down the stretch, and there’s now data to back up what many fans observed throughout the season.
Buccaneers’ predictable offense was tipping plays during the 2025 season
Ryan Paganetti, a former NFL strategy and analytics coach, has spent the offseason breaking down data from across the league.
His latest project was to determine which teams were tipping their plays by breaking down each team’s run/pass tendencies based on QB alignment.
11 Personnel Early Down Run/Pass Tendency by QB Alignment
— Ryan Paganetti (@RyanPaganetti) July 17, 2026
2025 Regular Season + Playoffs
Many defensive coordinators are now layering their calls so they are conditional on if you lined up in shotgun or under center
data via @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/7KqFgXrq8E
The Bucs, unsurprisingly, were the most predictable team in the NFL.
When Baker Mayfield was lined up in shotgun, Tampa Bay called a pass play 76.6% of the time. Conversely, when Mayfield was under center, the Bucs passed only 24% of the time.
That nearly 53-percentage-point gap was the widest of any team in the league. Essentially, opposing teams knew whether a pass or run was coming based solely on how Mayfield lined up.
“Bucs were both heavy pass in gun and heavy run under center, and also used this group at the 2nd highest rate in the league,” wrote Paganetti. “Strong tells is a pattern with Tampa. I’ve had many generally frame the Bucs coaching research set up as effectively in the Stone Age.”
Paganetti’s assertion that Tampa Bay’s coaching research is stuck in the Stone Age is a telling indictment against the Bucs’ coaching staff.
The Falcons also finished in the top five most predictable teams in this category with Zac Robinson calling their plays. Hopefully, he shows growth as a play caller and does a better job keeping defenses guessing this season in Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile the Dolphins, with Mike McDaniel at the helm, featured the most balanced, unpredictable play calling in the NFL by a very wide margin. The Bucs heavily pursued McDaniel to be their offensive coordinator this offseason, but he ultimately chose the Chargers instead. Had he chosen Tampa Bay, the Bucs would have one of the NFL’s best, most proven play callers roaming their sidelines.
The two Super Bowl teams from last season, the Seahawks and Patriots, both ranked in the top 10 least predictable offenses in the metric, so it has some merit.
Tampa Bay has way too much talent offensively to not keep opposing defenses on their toes. Tipping plays at such a high rate and being the NFL’s most predictable offense is unacceptable.
In today’s analytics-driven league, defensive coaches will easily identify those tendencies and make teams pay. The new offensive coaching staff needs to learn from this data as Mayfield and the offense look to return to form as one of the NFL’s elite offenses.
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