All eyes are on Indianapolis this week and the NFL Combine, where this year's NFL Draft class is meeting with teams for the first time and everyone is getting a lay of the land. Owning the No. 19 pick in the draft means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers likely won't have a shot at the top prospects coming out, but that doesn't seem to be completely off the table.
There isn't a consensus No. 1 pick in this year's class, but Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter seems to be the closest thing. Most mocks have the Tennessee Titans taking him with the first pick, but a recent injury issue could tank his stock -- much to the benefit of the Bucs.
It's crazy to think that the top prospect in the draft could fall to the middle of the first round, but it's not impossible. Mock Drafts are hardly gospel and it wouldn't be the first time experts got it wrong on a guy going later than expected.
Carter is dealing with a stress fracture in his foot, something that was initially reported as an injury he'd need surgery to fix. That isn't the only opinion though, as a day later it was reported that doctors don't believe he needs surgery.
It's this type of uncertainty that typically causes a prospect to start tumbling down draft boards.
The full-court press to downplay the injury is on, though. ESPN's Adam Schefter relayed a message from Carter's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, that the whole thing is a 'non-factor' and that the prospect's Pro Day will steady his draft stock.
Doctors told Penn St. DE and projected No. 1 pick Abdul Carter that, after further scans on his right foot, surgery is not advisable. Carter will work out at his March 28 pro day at Penn State.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 27, 2025
“I couldn’t be more confident that this will be a non-factor where he’s drafted,”… pic.twitter.com/pHTkIzDcWM
This seems like pretty standard Agent Speak, and nobody is better at parroting this sort of messaging. That doesn't mean it should be dismissed, though, as with most things like this the real outcome will be determined on the field. Carter's Pro Day at Penn State will do all the talking, and only then will we know how strong his stock is heading into the home stretch of Draft SZN.
Could top prospect Abdul Carter fall to the Buccaneers at No. 19?
Strange things tend to happen this time of year, though, and it wouldn't be the first time a top prospect took a tumble down draft boards in the 11th hour. The Philadelphia Eagles have benefited from this a few times, and the Bucs cashed in on draft chaos when Graham Barton fell to them at the end of the first round.
Even before Barton was officially the pick, there was growing hope that Florida State's Jared Verse would keep sliding within striking distance for Tampa Bay to draft him despite his top prospect status.
That's what the hope is here. It's extremely unlikely that Carter tumbles all the way to No. 19 unless something truly spooks teams ahead of the Bucs, and if that does happen then a trade up is possible from someone picking in the 20s (See: Philly making a splash).
All the Bucs need is for Carter to slide down far enough where a trade up is possible. If that happens, and he's still on the board when the 49ers go on the clock at No. 11, it will be hard to resist making a move to get a guy that could be a generational defensive talent.
Of course, as is the case with most things this time of year, a lot of this requires pipe dream logic. Carter slipping to within reach of the Bucs still feels like it would require a miracle, as the reason Tampa Bay would want him even with a potential medical red flag applies for the teams picking ahead of them.
Still, we can at least hope that more draft luck comes Tampa Bay's way.
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