Can The Buccaneers Continue Winning With Average Offense?

The Buccaneers impressive five game winning streak has been headlined by a dominant defense and an offense that makes just enough plays to win. Is that a sustainable trend for the Bucs to make the playoffs?

One of the most surprising parts of the Buccaneers 2016 season has been the script flip from before the season. In the hot, sweaty months of July and August all the chatter surrounding the Bucs was in regards to their offense. Dirk Koetter’s system was headed into year two with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Doug Martin set to lead the charge behind what was expected to be a solid offensive line.

The defense on the other hand was coming off of a horrific 2015 campaign and had to learn new defensive coordinator Mike Smith‘s scheme. Once injuries took hold in the early goings of the season the issues snow-balled and it looked like the script that everyone expected – lots of offensive yards gained and lots of defensive yards given up – was playing out.

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Then, the Bucs started winning.

Some time during the mini-bye that followed their big week nine loss to Atlanta, the Bucs defense clicked. After weeks of slow, ineffective pass rush suddenly the defensive line could get pressure regularly with four players (according to ESPN they blitzed only 8 times on 69 drop backs against Philip Rivers and Drew Brees).

With their front seven in full-blown attack mode and the secondary making opportunistic plays, the Bucs have been able to reel off five straight wins – despite averaging a mediocre 22.6 points per game on offense. The streak began after a 36-10 win against the Chicago Bears, but since then the Bucs offense hasn’t been able to account for more than 21 points. There have been flashes like the first half against Seattle and points throughout the Kansas City game, but for the most part the offense hasn’t been able to run, pass, or protect consistently enough.

The culprits of the offensive struggles are multiple, though when asked about it following the game coach Koetter directed blame squarely on himself:

"“The main reason we’re leaving points on the field is the play-caller is not going a good enough job.’’"

When asked on Monday about whether the issues were personnel related Koetter once again deflected blame from his players:

"“No, nope, nope, nope, no. I know what you’re talking about and I’m saying no. It’s not personnel. Look, we can cry about personnel all we want, but no one cares. Everyone has issues. The guys that are out there playing are good enough to be here and they’re good enough to be playing and it’s our job to find a way to make it go. It’s just the end of that story, there’s no use for crying about it, it’s not going to change.”"

Koetter’s emphatic dismissal of personnel flaws are without a doubt “coach-speak”, but he is right that it’s probably not something that will change over the final three games. So, can the Bucs maintain winning with this level of offensive play? It will not be easy.

To make the playoffs the Bucs absolutely must win at least two of their final three games, though winning all three is the safest bet. Each of those games – at Dallas, at New Orleans, home vs Carolina – features offenses that can make the Buccaneers pay for settling for red-zone field goals. With the Saints playing at home and Carolina having Cam Newton this time around the Bucs offense will need to muster up better than the 16 and 17 point totals they achieved in their previous wins versus them.

It’s key for Mike Evans and Jameis Winston to re-capture some of their magic from earlier in the season. Evans is getting the full attention of every defense they face and with him blanketed recently (38 and 42 yards the last two weeks) the Bucs passing game has severely lacked explosion. A return to form for Evans is paramount to finish the season.

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The best thing that the Buccaneers offense has going for it is its ability to perform in the clutch when the Bucs desperately need a third down conversion. Mike Evans, despite his lower numbers lately has been a tremendously reliable target in late game situations. Doug Martin can pick up tough yards when needed and the Buccaneers have proven they can bleed out the clock with their running game. If the defense continues to dominate and the offense can step up its rushing attack, winning these final three weeks may actually be a realistic feat.