Tampa Bay Buccaneers: How important is deep ball success?

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed DeSean Jackson in the spring of 2017, fans everywhere were excited about the expected increase in deep ball passing. While it didn’t come together the way everyone hoped, just how important is the ability to connect deep with wide receivers in today’s NFL?

Before we can answer that question and look forward to the 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, we have to decide what a deep ball really is.

See, the year past, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to produce 47 passing plays which went for 20-yards or more, and six which went for 40. These numbers ranked them in the middle of the pack and then in the bottom ten of NFL teams respectively.

Recently, Pro Football Focus released their chart showing which teams had the most deep ball passes thrown and completed, and for how many yards total.

It’s important to note that these yards only account for passes which traveled at least 20-yards before reaching the receiver. The first set of numbers include those which were caught under 20-yards from the line of scrimmage and then combined with yards after the catch for more than 20.

As you can see from the chart the Lions, Steelers and Chiefs led the pack while the Titans, Giants and Bears pulled up the tail end.

But does this all matter when you’re discussing playoff contention and week-to-week success?

The short answer is no.

Looking at the twelve teams which competed in the 2017-18 NFL Playoffs seven of the teams which ranked ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it in to post-season play. Which means five who came in under the Bucs also made it.

Those five teams were the Jaguars, Falcons, Bills, Panthers and Titans. In fact, Buffalo, Carolina and Tennessee all finished in the bottom five of the league when it came to passes completed which traveled 20-yards or more through the air.

Alternately, let’s look at big passing plays and their statistical importance. Those plays which may not have been completed at 20-yards or more but gained 20 or more in the end.

In this area, the Bucs were tied for 17th in the league with the Oakland Raiders.

Seven teams which made the playoffs in 2017 finished with more. So, like before, five which made the tournament finished with fewer.

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Those five this time were the Panthers, Eagles, Jaguars, Bills and Titans. Four of these five finished below Tampa in both categories with the Eagles being the only team which had fewer big plays but more big play yards.

On the other side of the coin, the Falcons had fewer big play yards but more big plays.

So, what does it all mean? Well, this won’t be a surprise to some, but it means the importance isn’t big play production. It’s simply production.

Now this may surprise even more of you, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually didn’t do poorly in this area.

Pretty much any way you cut it, the passing game was not the cause of problems in the bay. I could literally write all day about this topic, but let’s leave this with two more hot-button stats. First downs and touchdowns.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had 26 passing touchdowns in 2017. Tied for tenth in the league. Five playoff teams had more. Winston and Fitzpatrick combined to rank first in passing first downs and percentage of completions which resulted in first downs.

Obviously, there were no playoff players who bested them in the second category.

Now, if you’re reading this asking what the point is? Well, then you’re likely not pointing the finger at Jameis Winston as the reason the team is struggling, rather one of the reasons there is hope for the future.

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For you. This is to give you some more ammo – not that it’s needed – when meeting a Winston detractor at your local bowling, wing eating, or drinking establishment.

However, there are some in our fan base which would point the finger at Winston and scoff at the idea of Jason Licht picking up the young quarterback’s fifth-year option.

This is for you. You know who you are. What’s that? Oh! Turnovers. Yeah. You got me.

Ok, so Winston led all NFL quarterbacks with seven lost fumbles last season. Well, tied for the lead. Tom Savage and Matthew Stafford also share that distinction. In fact, Stafford had just one fewer turnover than Winston in 2017. Oh, and just about nobody is calling for Stafford to be replaced.

No playoff quarterback – quarterback group – had more turnovers than Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who combined for 21. That’s bad. Granted.

However, let’s not get it too twisted here. Half of the playoff field had fifteen or more. Let’s also not pretend turnovers are the primary marker used to measure quarterback success. Simply answer this question:

Which quarterback would you rather have?

Cam Newton or Alex Smith? Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor? Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz?

In only one of these situations is the likely pick – if you’re being honest – the guy with fewer turnovers.

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Of the quarterbacks who played in the playoffs this calendar year, the two with the fewest individual turnovers (Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith) were run out of their respective locker rooms as fast as legally possible.

I’m not saying turnovers are to be celebrated, but before you enter this argument with a turnover base, be prepared to state that Alex Smith and Tyrod Taylor were the best quarterbacks in the 2017-18 NFL Playoffs.

"With the seventh pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select….."

Let me know your own thoughts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing game and whatever else pops into your head.

Hit up the comments or find me on social media to do so. Thanks for reading.

David Harrison is one of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Co-Experts for The Pewter Plank. You can reach him about this or any other NFL topic on Facebook, or on Twitter.