Baker Mayfield made waves when he told the media that he and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are far apart in negotiations for a long-term contract extension.
With Mayfield entering a contract year, it was widely expected that the two sides would come to terms before the season to avoid any possibility of him hitting the open market next offseason.
But Mayfield’s recent comments, along with the deadline he gave for a contract agreement, have put both sides on the clock. It now seems increasingly likely that he’ll play out the final year of his deal before revisiting negotiations after the season.
Baker Mayfield is prepared to bet on himself ahead of 2026 season
Playing out a contract year is a massive gamble for Mayfield.
The biggest risk is injury. Mayfield battled through multiple injuries last season but was fortunate enough to avoid missing any time. A significant injury in 2026 could dramatically impact his long-term value and cost him millions on his next contract.
Another risk is that an individual down year, or another season in which the Buccaneers finish with a losing record, could make the organization think twice before committing to him long-term.
Of course, the gamble comes with plenty of upside as well.
If Mayfield performs at an elite level and plays the way he did during the 2024 season, he could be in line for a massive payday. There are currently 11 quarterbacks making more than $50 million per year, and a strong season would guarantee Mayfield a spot in that group.
If Tampa Bay is offering Mayfield something in the neighborhood of $45 million per year, similar to a quarterback like Daniel Jones, it may be difficult to justify turning it down.
While another big season could significantly increase his market value, there’s also a real possibility that his stock falls because of injuries or inconsistent play.
Mayfield has never been afraid to bet on himself, and it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s the route he takes in pursuit of the biggest possible payday.
Still, the Buccaneers hold all of the leverage in this situation. If Mayfield’s asking price is higher than the organization is willing to meet, they can simply make him play out the season. Even then, Tampa Bay could use the franchise tag rather than allow him to test the open market.
If Mayfield wants to play hard ball, he has to be prepared for the possibility that the organization will play hard ball right back, and take full advantage of their leverage to keep him at the best possible value going forward.
It’s the most tense moment of Mayfield’s Buccaneers tenure so far, and the outcome could shape the franchise for years to come.
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