The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping to take back the NFC South crown in 2026.
After four consecutive years winning the division, the Bucs wasted a 6-2 start last season and collapsed down the stretch, allowing the Carolina Panthers to snatch the throne.
The NFC South will be the most competitive it’s been in years heading into 2026, with the entire division having impactful offseasons and vastly improving their rosters.
The Saints are poised to be one of the NFL’s most improved teams next year, and they’ve already been given a huge head start in the division race.
Saints have the NFL’s second-easiest schedule in 2026
Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst whose work is built around analytics.
NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2026!
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 4, 2026
5 easiest schedules:
1️⃣ Lions
2️⃣ Saints
3️⃣ Bengals
4️⃣ Browns
5️⃣ Jets
5 hardest schedules:
2️⃣8️⃣ Rams
2️⃣9️⃣ Cowboys
3️⃣0️⃣ Panthers
3️⃣1️⃣ Dolphins
3️⃣2️⃣ Cardinals
1-32 with insight & analysis:https://t.co/iS1PFqfcxx
Rather than the outdated strength of schedule formula that fails to account for offseason additions, Sharp relied on Vegas forecasted win totals to determine which teams play the easiest or hardest slates in 2026.
For example, teams like the Dolphins and Cardinals whose over-unders are set at 4.5, count as the easiest matchups, while teams like the Rams and Seahawks at 10.5 are the hardest matchups.
It’s a much more effective formula because Vegas accounts for any offseason transactions when they set their totals while the typical .SOS calculation is only based off win-loss record from the previous season.
Well, based on this formula, the Saints have the second-easiest schedule in the entire NFL. The Bucs, in contrast, have the tenth-hardest.
This is due to the Bucs coming in second place and the Saints coming in fourth last season. In their scheduled games against same-place finishers, the Buccaneers have to face the Rams (not again!), Cowboys, and Chargers.
The Saints get a much easier group with the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants.
New Orleans absolutely knocked this offseason out of the park. They bolstered their weakest position, wide receiver, by selecting Jordyn Tyson in the first round of the NFL Draft. They also drafted a popular Bucs target in tight end Oscar Delp, and they signed explosive running back Travis Etienne in free agency.
They’ve quietly put together one of the most promising young teams in the league, and they’ll get a boost from an easy schedule as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
The Bucs will have to conquer an absolute gauntlet of a schedule to rise to the top of a much-improved NFC South division in 2026.
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