Right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the driver's seat of not only the NFC South but also the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. It's the result of an incredible turnaround the team has mounted, as the Bucs are riding a four-game winning streak that pretty much negates a four-game losing streak that nearly sunk the season.
Since the bye week, Tampa Bay is 4-0 and playing like one of the best teams in football. Despite some close calls against the Panthers and Raiders, the Bucs have had blowout wins over the Giants and Chargers, with the latter being one of the season's most impressive wins.
Tampa Bay marched in to SoFi and hung 40-points on the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. It's a win that has everyone starting to take notice of the Bucs as contenders, and it's a victory that earned them more breathing room than it might seem looking at the standings.
Buccaneers still have a path to the playoffs even if they lose to Cowboys on SNF
What should happen is the Buccaneers winning out and beating three teams with losing records. If that happens the Tampa Bay would clinch the No. 3 seed and win the NFC South for a fourth consecutive season.
Bucs fans will be the first ones to tell you that nothing is as easy as it seems with this team and they're capable of some pretty major gaffes. This means bracing ourselves for the possibility of a loss in one of the next three games, something that would be brutal but not fatal when it comes to their playoff chances.
It would require some help, but the Bucs can still make the playoffs -- and even win the NFC South -- if they stumble and lose any of their last three matchups.
Buckle up, because things get a little convoluted.
If Tampa Bay loses, the Week 17 matchup between the Commanders and Falcons is the game to circle. That game will benefit the Bucs one way or another, no matter the outcome, although a win by Washington would be what everyone in Tampa is rooting for.
Atlanta losing that game would erase any loss the Bucs suffer between now and the end of the season. Think of it as a mulligan, as it would put things back to how they are right now with Tampa Bay leading the NFC South. It would be less powerful than if the Bucs were to win out and storm into the playoffs on a heater, but we could probably chalk it up to a scare the team needed.
The Falcons beating Washington would flip them back into first place in the NFC South but wouldn't knock the Bucs out of the playoff picture. In this scenario, the Bucs and Commanders would have the same record, which means the head-to-head tiebreaker Tampa Bay owns comes into play and give them the edge.
If that happens, it doesn't matter if Washington wins its final game because the Bucs would finish with the same record and get the final spot in the playoffs.
Result | Impact on Buccaneer Playoff Chances |
|---|---|
Falcons beat Commanders | Bucs can make it as the No. 7 seed |
Commanders beat Falcons | Bucs move back into first place |
To be clear, all of this hinges on the Bucs winning two of out their last three games. If Tampa Bay loses more than one game, making the playoffs is a long shot.
As an aside, the Packers losing out would be ideal for the Bucs since it would mean this scenario sees Tampa Bay get the No. 6 seed rather than the last Wild Card spot. Realistically, if we're counting on this bail out to get the Bucs into the playoffs then the best we can hope for is the No. 7 seed.
None of this is ideal, but it highlights that the Bucs turnaround since the bye week has created more paths to the playoffs than we thought possible before. Winning out is still the single best way this can all go, as it would mean Tampa Bay outright earning its way into the playoffs and securing the No. 3 seed. If we're looking for progress over last year, that pretty much checks the box..
Tampa Bay losing any of its last three games would be a blow to the confidence that has been building over the last four games, but it wouldn't be fatal. The team should still operate as though there's zero margin for error, but if worse comes to worse there's at least a little wiggle room to work with.
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