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Where Baker Mayfield actually ranks among NFL QBs speaks volumes on Bucs' decision

It's all relative.
Jan 3, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers in the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Jan 3, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Carolina Panthers in the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Many Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans are upset with Jason Licht and the organization for submitting a low ball contract offer to star quarterback Baker Mayfield just before the self imposed training camp deadline to get a new deal done, meaning Mayfield will play the 2026 NFL regular season on an expiring contract, putting the Bucs in grave danger of losing their second most talented quarterback of the 2000s in free agency (and the first is the literal GOAT Tom Brady with all apologies to Brad "The Bull" Johnson).

Mayfield is not coming off his finest season, and whlie that has more to do with the defense and the injuries around him - and the one to his own shoulder - the former first round pick out of Oklahoma has made a career out of inconsistency. And Licht and the Bucs are going to challenge Mayfield to be consistent through the 17 game season in 2026 to bounce back from last season's collapse.

While Mayfield was getting MVP shouts through the first six games of the season, he regressed badly in the second half, and, at this point, nobody is putting him in that conversation. In most quarterback rankings, Mayfield sits somewhere outside the top 10, including according to real NFL personnel, with many outlets even ranking him in the bottom half of starters around the 15-20 range.

Baker Mayfield is not a top 10 QB

Now, that seems very low to most Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, but as heuristics go, most people fall into the availability heuristic and overrate their own team's players. The national media and most people within the NFL do not at all view Mayfield as a top 10 quarterback, and as he struggles to get that divisional round win in Tampa Bay, he rates among the more mediocre starters in the league.

That means Baker Mayfield is right where he is now: just around the bare minimum franchise quarterback threshold of $50 million per season, which is where quarterbacks in that range of the rankings fare out in terms of annual salary. So if Mayfield wants a substantial raise and thinks he is in that top 10 bracket, most people outside of Tampa Bay don't see him that way.

So that's why Jason Licht and the Buccaneers aren't throwing dollar signs at Mayfield, and it's why the Bake feels disrespected. If he wants to be known as a top 10 QB and paid like one, he is going to have to prove it in 2026.

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