Which first-round QB pattern will Buccaneers’ Jameis Winston follow in year three?

With some new weapons on offense, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has the potential to be even better than he was in years one and two of his career. Last year, we looked at trends from year one to year two for quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2012. Now, one year later, we’ll look at trends from year two to year three.

Though it’s only been two seasons, Jameis Winston is looking like the franchise quarterback that the Buccaneers thought he would be when they selected him first overall in the 2015 NFL Draft. Last season, he became the first quarterback in NFL history to start a career with back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons. A year ago, we looked at the numbers put up by first-round quarterbacks in their first and second seasons. Now that Winston has completed his second year, we can look at the breakdown of his first two campaigns:

Year one: Completed 58.3 percent of passes, 4,255 total yards, 28 touchdowns (22 passing), 15 INT in 16 games

Year two: Completed 60.8 percent of passes,  4,255 total yards, 29 touchdowns (28 passing), 18 INT in 16 games

Winston upped his completion percentage, his touchdown count and stayed uncannily consistent in terms of total yards. Where he faltered, however, was in the turnover category. He threw three more interceptions in his second season and despite the sheer bad luck with some of them, that’s still far too many turnovers.

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Now that we’ve peeked back at the year one to two progression, let’s have a look at trends from year two to year three.

Quarterbacks that regressed from year two to year three: Robert Griffin III (2012, 2nd overall); Brandon Weeden (2012, 22nd overall); EJ Manuel (2013, 16th overall); Blake Bortles (2014, 3rd overall); Johnny Manziel (2014, 22nd overall); Teddy Bridgewater (2014, 32nd overall)

What sticks out here is the size of this group. Of the eight quarterbacks selected between 2012 and 2015, six of them regressed from year two to year three. First, a look at the numbers from their second seasons:

Griffin- Completed 60.1 percent of passes, 3,692 total yards, 16 touchdowns (all passing), 12 INT in 13 games

Weeden- Completed 52.8 percent of passes, 1,775 total yards, 9 touchdowns (all passing), 9 INT in 8 games

Manuel- Completed 58 percent of passes, 890 total yards, 6 touchdowns (5 passing), 3 INT in 5 games

Bortles- Completed 58.6 percent of passes, 4,738 total yards, 37 touchdowns (35 passing), 18 INT in 16 games

Manziel- Completed 57.8 percent of passes, 1,730 total yards, 7 touchdowns (all passing), 5 INT in 9 games

Bridgewater- Completed 65.3 percent of passes, 3,423 total yards, 17 touchdowns (14 passing), 9 INT in 16 games

These are some fairly solid numbers, especially when it comes to Bortles and Bridgewater. Weeden, Manuel and Manziel didn’t play full seasons, but even these numbers are considerably better than what they followed with. Bortles and Bridgewater showed a great deal of promise, while Griffin dropped down a little bit from his stellar rookie season. But in year three, all of these quarterbacks fell:

Griffin- Completed 68.7 percent of passes, 1,870 total yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing), 6 INT in 9 games

Weeden- Completed 58.5 percent of passes, 302 total yards, 3 touchdowns (all passing), 2 INT in 5 games

Manuel- Completed 61.9 percent of passes, 625 total yards, 4 touchdowns (3 passing), 3 INT in 7 games

Bortles- Completed 58.9 percent of passes, 4,264 total yards, 26 touchdowns (23 passing), 16 INT in 16 games

Manziel- Did Not Play (Out of the League)

Bridgewater-Did Not Play (Torn ACL)

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The injury bug bit a couple of these guys, which makes evaluating their performances in year three a bit unfair. Griffin was serviceable when he was able to play, especially with his completion percentage taken into consideration. In Bridgewater’s situation, it was just plain unfortunate. He tore his ACL in training camp and didn’t get to step onto the field in the regular season. Manziel’s situation was, well, self-inflicted. He couldn’t stay out of trouble, got suspended and fell out of the league. Weeden and Manuel slipped into backup roles, while Bortles was the only one with real playing time. He wasn’t significantly worse in his third year, but his numbers dropped a bit.

What really feels notable about these regressions is how quickly they happened. Aside from Bortles and Bridgewater, the quarterbacks in this group very quickly proved to be busts for one reason or another. It’s fairly obvious that it’s not difficult to miss on first-round quarterbacks.

However, it’s safe to say that Miami and Indianapolis didn’t miss with their first-rounders.

Quarterbacks that progressed from year two to year three: Andrew Luck (2012, 1st overall); Ryan Tannehill (2012, 8th overall)

As we look at year two to three, there were only a couple of improvements. First, the numbers from Luck and Tannehill in their second seasons:

Luck- Completed 60.2 percent of passes, 4,199 total yards, 27 touchdowns (23 passing), 9 INT in 16 games

Tannehill- Completed 60.4 percent of passes, 4,151 total yards, 25 touchdowns (24 passing), 17 INT in 16 games

Luck’s numbers were outstanding in his second year, just as they were in his rookie campaign. However, Tannehill turned the ball over far too many times. His other numbers were pretty solid, but he was able to jump from those in year three, as was Luck:

Luck- Completed 61.7 percent of passes, 5,034 total yards, 43 touchdowns (40 passing), 16 INT in 16 games

Tannehill- Completed 66.4 percent of passes, 4,356 total yards, 28 touchdowns (27 passing), 12 INT in 16 games

These numbers are outstanding. If the Bucs can get numbers like these out of No. 3 this fall, their goal of reaching their first postseason since 2007 will be looking pretty great. Luck’s interception total went up, but he can live with that considering he saw an increase in completion percentage, as well as about 1,000 more yards and 16 more touchdowns. Tannehill was also prolific, cutting down his turnovers while increasing in efficiency. A big key for both quarterbacks? The fact that they stayed healthy and played all 16 games.

Tampa Bay did a lot in the offseason to put Winston in position to improve upon his impressive first two years. Of course, the most important stat for the young quarterback will be how many wins he racks up. In year three, Tannehill put up those good numbers but only totaled eight wins. Luck put up 11 victories and led his team to the AFC title game. The Bucs are a hot pick to make the playoffs right now, but it will largely be up to Winston and his talented group of receivers to get them there.

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The Bucs have to be expecting a lot out of Jameis Winston this season. There’s a deeper group of options for him to throw to and the team is more well-rounded and talented than it has been in years. It’s not unrealistic to think Famous Jameis will follow in the footsteps of Luck and Tannehill. What say you, Bucs fans? Let us know in the comments, on Twitter or on Facebook.