The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a 2025 season in which they finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
It was a disappointing year for the Buccaneers to say the least, and there’s a lot riding on the upcoming 2026 season. Head coach Todd Bowles is firmly on the hot seat, and Baker Mayfield is entering a contract year. The way the team performs will impact the trajectory of the franchise — and another letdown could lead to a full-on reset.
This is the most pivotal season in years for Tampa Bay, and a grueling regular season schedule awaits the Bucs as they look to bounce back and return to playoff contention.Â
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 regular season predictions
Week 1: at Cincinnati Bengals: W (1-0)
The Bengals are a dangerous team. They’re led by one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Joe Burrow, and feature one of the league’s scariest wide receiver duos in Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins. Todd Bowles better have his defense ready for this one.
The Bengals also have a new-look defense headlined by the acquisition of Dexter Lawrence.Â
But history is on the Bucs’ side for this one. The Bengals are 2-4 in Week 1 games since Burrow became the starting quarterback in 2020. They’ve notoriously gotten off to slow starts.
The Bucs on the other hand are a perfect 4-0 in Week 1 since Bowles became the head coach. Mayfield is 6-2 against the Bengals in his career, and those trends continue here.Â
Week 2: vs Cleveland Browns: W (2-0)
Baker Mayfield gets a chance for revenge in the home opener, facing the Browns for the first time as a Buccaneer.Â
The Bucs are simply the better team here, and they will be able to handle business — as long as they don’t allow Myles Garrett to take over the game.Â
Week 3: vs Minnesota Vikings: L (2-1)
The Bucs started 3-0 last season, but it'll be a tall task to repeat that feat this season.
The Vikings have dangerous weapons on offense and quietly boast one of the NFL’s best defensive units. Their passing defense ranked No. 2 last season, and they were one of eight teams to allow less than 20 points per game.
If Minnesota gets good play out of the quarterback position, this will be a hard game for the Bucs to win.Â
Week 4: vs Green Bay Packers: W (3-1)
The Bucs bounce back with a win here against a contending Packers team.Â
Green Bay is one of the best teams in the NFC, but there’s a chance they’ll be without Micah Parsons as rumors swirl that he could be placed on the PUP list and miss the first four games of the season.Â
The Bucs would have a major advantage taking on a cold-weather team in the Tampa heat without their best player. Â
Week 5: @ Dallas Cowboys: L (3-2)
The Cowboys have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and the Tampa defense better come ready to play or they’ll be embarrassed in front of the national audience.Â
The Bucs have the pieces to keep up with Dallas, and this game is a true toss-up. Ultimately, Tampa Bay’s struggles in prime time in which they’ve gone 1-9 during the Baker Mayfield era tip the scale in favor of the Cowboys.Â
Week 6: vs Pittsburgh Steelers: W (4-2)
The Steelers are in a similar spot to the Bucs over the last few years as both teams have hovered around the .500 mark and been consistent playoff teams while failing to make deep postseason runs.
Both teams are in a purgatory of sorts, and hoping to finally break through as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2026. Something has to give here as they go head-to-head, and the Bucs come away with the home victory.Â
Week 7: @ Carolina Panthers: L (4-3)
The Bucs would love to get revenge here after the Panthers stole the NFC South crown last season. But the Panthers got much better this offseason.Â
They had one of the best free agencies by upgrading the offensive line and signing Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to bolster the defense. They followed that up with a great draft class, and they look to be a real threat.Â
Heading into Carolina will be a tough test, and the opportunity for revenge will have to wait.Â
Week 8: vs Atlanta Falcons: W (5-3)
Coming off a divisional loss just a week prior, the Bucs bounce back with a big win over the Falcons.Â
Atlanta embarrassed the Bucs in Tampa last season, overcoming a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter and leaving with a 29-28 win. It was one of the worst losses, frankly ever, for the Bucs, but this time around they’ll defend their home turf.Â
Week 9: @ Chicago Bears: L (5-4)
The Bears with offensive mastermind Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams will be a nightmare to deal with — not to mention having to face them on the road at Soldier Field.Â
Tampa Bay’s prime-time woes certainly don’t help their case, and the Bucs leave with another frustrating loss.Â
Week 10: Bye Week
The Bucs head into the bye week at 5-4. Having a winning record is a positive, but the toughest stretch of the season is on the horizon.Â
Week 11: @ Detroit Lions: L (5-5)
The Lions humiliated the Bucs 24-9 last season, and that was without their entire starting secondary.Â
Detroit has such a high-octane offense and a physical defense that it’s hard for anybody to walk into Ford Field and leave with a victory. The Lions are simply the better team here, and the Bucs can’t overcome that.Â
Week 12: vs Carolina Panthers: W (6-5)
The Buccaneers finally get their revenge over the Panthers, and they notch an elusive prime time win in the process.Â
The NFC South will come down to the wire, so the importance of getting a late-season win over the reigning division champs can’t be overstated.Â
Week 13: vs Los Angeles Chargers: W (7-5)
The Chargers will be a tough team to beat with Mike McDaniel calling plays and Justin Herbert at the helm.Â
The Bucs have two major edges — and that’s the uncertainty of the Chargers’ interior offensive line and the cross-country trip and time zone change.Â
The offensive line has been a major weakness over the last few seasons, and while they addressed it this offseason, they still have to prove it on the field. The Bucs’ disruptive interior defensive line made up of Vita Vea’ A’Shawn Robinson, and Calijah Kancey is enough to give the Bucs the upper hand, and they send the Chargers back to Los Angeles with a loss.
Week 14: @ Baltimore Ravens: L (7-6)
This will be one of the toughest games of the season. The Ravens are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with Lamar Jackson at the helm, especially after making a splash and signing Trey Hendrickson, who the Bucs themselves were targeting.Â
Heading into a tough environment like Baltimore to face a better overall team isn’t exactly a recipe for success.Â
Week 15: vs New Orleans Saints: W (8-6)
The Saints are one of the NFL’s most improved and exciting teams, and their future is certainly bright.Â
But in a crucial home game with massive playoff implications, the Bucs will rely on their experience and veteran leadership to fight off a young, up-and-coming team and ultimately find a way to survive with a win.Â
Week 16: @ Atlanta Falcons W (9-6)
The Bucs-Falcons series has been incredibly competitive, with the Falcons holding a 33-32 edge all-time.Â
The Falcons are 4-2 against Tampa Bay since Baker Mayfield became the Bucs quarterback in 2023. The games have been electric, with a few instant classics over the last few years. These teams never play a boring game against each other.Â
The one advantage the Bucs have is that the Falcons, despite an incredible roster, are battling uncertainty at the quarterback spot. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. both battling injury concerns and subpar play.
If Tampa Bay can shut down the run and force the opposing QB to beat them, they can sweep Atlanta for the first time since 2021.Â
Week 17: @ Los Angeles Rams: L (9-7)
Last season in my season predictions, I wrote that there’s no result I’m more confident in than the Bucs losing to the Rams. The Rams ultimately won 34-7.
This year, once again, there is no result I’m more confident in than the Bucs losing to the Rams.
Los Angeles is the Super Bowl favorite, and they’re a much better team than Tampa Bay. Sometimes, a team just has your number, and the Bucs are 2-9 in their last 11 games against the Rams. There’s no reason to believe things will change this time around.
Week 18: @ New Orleans Saints: W (10-7)
The Bucs bounce back after a loss to the Rams and end the season on a high note.Â
While the Saints are certainly much improved, they caught the more experienced Bucs team at a bad time. Tampa Bay will enter this game with a playoff berth on the line, and a division title likely hanging in the balance. They’ll find a way to close the deal.
The Bucs have never gone 5-1 in the NFC South series in franchise history, but with how difficult the rest of their schedule is, dominating division play is the only path toward a playoff appearance.
Final Bucs 2026 Record Prediction: 10-7
Perhaps I was looking at things through rose—or Bucs-colored glasses. The schedule, especially after the bye, is brutal.Â
It feels like the Bucs’ only hope at winning the NFC South is to dominate the games against their division opponents to make up for how difficult the rest of the schedule is.Â
The floor for this team is as low as around seven wins, and I probably have them hitting their ceiling here with 10 wins.
It’ll certainly be a tall task, but the roster is good enough to reach double-digits in the win column and return to the playoffs.
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